Category: Economy

Traders were right that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent speech was important. But buying stocks was the wrong reaction.

An indicator with an impeccable track record has all but triggered a countdown to the next recession. It warrants caution.

Over the past few weeks, I’ve explained my position that there will not be a recession in 2019. This time, I’m coming at it from the real estate market.

We’re in a deflationary boom period driven by rapid technological developments. And the stocks you want to own are the ones creating this boom.

Where do we go from here? From my perch, it looks like the markets have already priced in the Federal Reserve’s work, at least in the short term.

Businesses and consumers are thriving. Here are a few important indicators that reflect the overall bullish outlook on the United States economy.

Expectations were for a whopping 17.3% sales growth for Black Friday weekend online sales. But even those sky-high expectations got shattered.

Black Friday is always the Friday after Thanksgiving, and shopping habits on that day have helped drive year-end growth for the stock market.

While the economy is driven by data, stock prices are driven by emotion, whether good or bad. And right now, fear has a strong grip on the overall market.

We’re in an era of rising interest rates and declining liquidity — both courtesy of the Federal Reserve’s policies over the last three years.

Competition is what made capitalism a success story. Without competition, capitalism is simply a big racket, with us as the marks.

U.S. credit card debt topped $1 trillion this year for the first time ever. And many Americans are forced to make some difficult choices…

Consumer prices’ slow and steady climb will force the Fed to keep raising interest rates. Inflation needs to be subdued for the Fed to stop raising rates.

You might remember the last recession. Unemployment jumped from 4.8% to 10%. The S&P 500 Index dropped more than 55%. It sent such a shockwave through the business world that it was given the moniker of “Great,” though it certainly didn’t feel so great when it was happening. That recession officially ended in June 2009. […]

Everywhere you look, someone else is calling for a crash. But a lot of impressive, undeniable facts about our economic boom are being overlooked.

Since 2005, there have been eight years in which interest rates have gone up. However, they really haven’t had a bad effect on profit growth over the long run.

The long-term interest-rate trend just shifted, ending a 28.9-year trend. And that’s not good for businesses, consumers or stocks.

It looks like everything is humming along nicely. But we are starting to see cracks in this amazing economic picture that could spell trouble.

The current cycle will change from expansion to recession someday. That day may be close. No matter when it comes, the United States is doomed.

Too much of America has been left behind in the latest economic boom, and it is creating a problem that will derail further gains.

There’s been a lot of talk over the last month that rising interest rates are wreaking havoc on the market. Don’t let the headlines fool you.

Despite various headwinds, carriers placed a record number of orders for new trucks this quarter. September saw orders for semitrucks jump 92%.

If you only pay attention to averages, you’ll miss the most important things about the economy. And it’s likely to cost you a lot of money.

While the Federal Reserve may be a big threat to President Donald Trump’s agenda, it isn’t the biggest threat to the stock market.

Nearly 20 years later, I’m finding some frightening similarities between the 2000 meltdown and today … and it’s not necessarily the indicators you’d expect.

Stock prices reflect future expectations. And data tells us investors will grow pessimistic next year as both economic and earnings growth slow down.

As interest rates rise, Americans are going to get squeezed. And if you take the American consumer out of the picture, the economy starts to stumble.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that there are currently more job positions open than there are workers in 12 out of 14 industries. Michael Carr shares more info.

U.S. jobless claims are even lower than the headlines reveal. But there is some bad news: There are too many people working.

On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy, unleashing the scariest economic storm in American history since the Great Depression.

Federal Reserve officials watch hundreds of data series. Among the most important is this one. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell even spoke about it recently.

Americans owe record amounts on their credit cards, car loans, student loans and mortgages. But, as I’ll show you, there is a way to profit from the trend of rising consumer debt.

President Donald Trump has been in office for more than a year now — and I don’t think he would be impressed with his economy.

This once-illegal activity is the single largest short-term driver of the stock market.

Tariffs are back in the news. But policy makers at the Fed seem to be out of touch and set to repeat mistakes like those seen in the 1930s.

This is the start of a massive transformation in our daily lives. And it’s going to create opportunities for us to profit.

Thanks to our representatives in Washington, we face a future of higher interest rates, a falling dollar and falling stock prices.

After a sharp sell-off, the Dow was down more than 10%. Declines of 10% in less than two weeks are fairly common. Yet the most recent one stands out as unique.

The Federal Reserve is watching closely for signs of inflation. But until inflation actually appears, now is the time to buy stocks.

Bond king Jeffrey Gundlach said that if the 10-year yield rises above 2.63%, it could start to hurt equities. On Friday, the rate was at 2.64%.

At least for now, traders don’t agree with the Fed. In the futures markets, traders are betting with real money that interest rates are going to decline.

Many analysts claim fundamental ratios show that stocks are overpriced. But these ratios don’t tell us very much by themselves. They need context.

Lumber prices are an important economic indicator. High demand for lumber means homebuilders are building houses, which boosts economic activity.

Amazon is about to strike at a new target. I’m certain many of you own these stocks. Well, here’s what happens when Amazon targets your stock…

The reason the stock market cares about the tax bill so much is because this reform would cut corporate taxes almost in half. At least, for some companies.

Low rates mean slow economic growth. Traders are expecting a recession, possibly starting at the end of next year. This is consistent with my indicators.

The recent tax bill that was passed lowers the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%. That will make a huge difference to companies that spend a lot of money.

What did your readers have to say about Amazon Key, the company’s new In-House Delivery service? Find out in our latest mailbag round up.

The latest survey shows that the price of Thanksgiving dinner will be the lowest in five years. And the reason for this is simple…oil prices. Here’s why.

An important thing to look at when gauging our economy is the overall consumer confidence outlook. Right now, that outlook is extremely positive.

The Federal Reserve has one major policy meeting left in 2017 and its decision regarding rates could be the catalyst that derails the market’s rally.

A new transportation system is coming soon that will completely change the auto industry and, in time, life as we know it.

The important question is whether two straight months of gains is a sign of exhaustion or strength. Fortunately, there’s good news here.

What’s so interesting (and dangerous) is that it’s not mortgage debt, but all the nonhousing debt that’s leading the charge this time.

Proposed corporate tax reform sounds good for earnings on paper. But, as this chart shows, corporations aren’t paying the top rate.

There’s a precedent for something as “unprecedented” as tax reform under an unloved president. And the precedent is bullish.

The St. Louis Federal Reserve has done its best to create a Financial Stress Index that tells the stress level of the economy.

Wall Street still has a monopoly on one essential part of trading … but in time, the internet is going to wipe out this current advantage.

The president has a significant impact on the Fed since each president appoints a chair. President Donald Trump now has his chance to leave his mark.

The Fed tries to stop raising rates before it starts a recession. But that’s hard to do … and it usually isn’t successful.

There’s another storm ready to pummel the U.S. and leave behind a painfully slow recovery that could eat away at your wealth if you’re not prepared…

2017 will see the most houses built in the last decade. And within the housing boom, another trend is in place.

Millennials are a focus of my Profits Unlimited service. This generation is also why I base my strategy on one thing. Just one thing.

Few sectors were hit harder than insurance companies in 2008, so it stands to reason that they learned their lessons. But some lessons are not so easily learned…

Harvey will affect millions of lives, the economy of Texas, the nation’s economy and the stock market.

While the flooding in Texas deserves our attention, there is a dangerous analogous threat: the perfect storm brewing within the U.S. financial system.

If employment is increasing, tax receipts should be growing, But at the end of August, employers were making smaller payroll tax deposits.

Markets are inherently unstable. And right now, the housing market is in a rare state of equilibrium. This can’t last for much longer.

Since the recession, the job market has shifted so much that it’s created an entire new trend in the American workforce.

My market-based forecast is bearish for the economy. It’s also bad news for anyone looking at financing a big purchase after December.

There’s one important thing the media isn’t telling you. And if you don’t know this, you’re going to miss out on massive gains in the stock market.

Economists talk about growth in terms of GDP or income. These factors are important, but they don’t tell me anything about the average family.

Stock market news has continued to weigh heavily toward politics compared to the usual economic indicators, stock news and even earnings.

You never want to find yourself unprepared for the next correction … and we’ve got a few bumps in the road that we can watch for.

Harley-Davidson recently received an up-close look at the dangers of not paying close enough attention to the tastes of America’s millennial generation.

Taking a road trip to Minnesota seemed like a great idea. So, too, did the idea of renting an RV through a peer-to-peer service called Outdoorsy.

Turning back the clock is always a popular idea in the country, as President Donald Trump’s election demonstrated.

In calls with analysts, 61% of companies warned that the strong dollar is a cause of concern. CEOs might be trying to manage expectations.

There was some good news in the Congressional Budget Office’s report last week. But the report seems to be using optimistic assumptions.

A poll of economists tells us to expect a pretty good unemployment report this Friday. But other government data tell us to look for weak jobs data.

Malls are in different markets. Malls in major markets are doing just fine. The malls in tertiary markets are ones that are struggling.

There’s no doubt our economy is just sputtering along, which isn’t necessarily bad. But the fact it continuously fails to live up to set assumptions is problematic.

Our economy has a problem that could easily become the next black swan event that topples the stock market and your plans for retirement…

With careful planning and a little knowledge, we can take advantage of a few techniques to build a nest egg to protect against the next financial collapse…

With Macy’s, Sears, Chico’s and other mall retailers all shuttering locations, it seems big malls are going to be in trouble sooner rather than later.

Solar energy has emerged as a dominant force that is not only an unlimited resource, but also becoming cheaper and cheaper.

Though it may not feel like the tech bubble of 1999, there are clear similarities between then and today. And we all know how it ended then.

With the Fed raising interest rates on the heels of a disturbing report on U.S. consumer debt, I’m left wondering how the rest of the country will fare.

We expect 10-year yields to move higher when the Fed raises short-term interest rates. But nothing seems to be normal in the current economy.

We are faced with a big problem that is threatening to sink our economy, and it’s crucial that we take action now.

Businesses and consumers have had enough time to react to the U.S. presidential election in a positive fashion. There’s just one problem: That isn’t the case.

In business after business, the food industry is finding out that millennials’ preferences are different than their parents’ or the previous generation’s.

There are more job openings than new hires. This indicates employers have problems finding qualified applicants, which is important for a couple of reasons.

June 1 marked the first day of hurricane season. When it comes to Wall Street, a different kind of storm is brewing, and now is a good time to start preparing…

A Gallup poll found that only 54% of American households own stocks. For the rest of Americans, paying today’s bills replaced investing in the future.

Despite Washington’s scandals and the mass media headlines predicting doom and gloom, the U.S. economy is picking up steam.

More than 90% of companies in the S&P 500 Index recently reported first-quarter earnings … and the results are the best we’ve seen in more than five years.