The problem isn’t really tariff rates. The problem is how investors think about tariff rates. Investor sentiment moves markets, not low tariff rates.
Chartered Market Technician Michael Carr explains why inverse ETFs are the best bear market stock strategies and investments, along with options trading.
Economists agree there’s a cycle of growth and contraction, or boom and bust. The net income margin measures these changes and is signaling a 40% fall.
Net income margins of the companies in the S&P 500 Index reached a record high last quarter. And that sets up the next bear market.
As oil sold off, the smart money in the futures market turned bullish. In the past, that has set up a rally in oil prices.
You might remember the last recession. Unemployment jumped from 4.8% to 10%. The S&P 500 Index dropped more than 55%. It sent such a shockwave through the business world that it was given the moniker of “Great,” though it certainly didn’t feel so great when it was happening. That recession officially ended in June 2009. […]
Many investors saw the November bounce and thought the worst was behind us. But history shows strong up moves are most common in bear markets.
The current cycle will change from expansion to recession someday. That day may be close. No matter when it comes, the United States is doomed.
The stock prices of the group reflected hopes for the new markets. And a bubble developed. But the bubble reached irrational peaks. All bubbles do.
This indicator gave sell signals before bear markets in 2000 and 2008. It’s one of the few indicators that warned of the October 1987 market crash.
Most stocks and indexes move in line with the S&P 500 Index. But some show fear or greed earlier or later than the S&P 500.
Robinhood offers free trades. That’s a good deal, if it’s true. But since we know there can’t be a free lunch, it’s obvious Robinhood makes money somewhere.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that there are currently more job positions open than there are workers in 12 out of 14 industries. Michael Carr shares more info.
U.S. jobless claims are even lower than the headlines reveal. But there is some bad news: There are too many people working.
Federal Reserve officials watch hundreds of data series. Among the most important is this one. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell even spoke about it recently.
Social media is an “anything goes” media platform. That’s OK for some things. But policy makers are concerned that political speech needs regulation.
Everything is in place for the next uptrend. Prices are set up for the next bubble. Now is the time to buy as traders scramble to catch the uptrend.
Fundamentals point to more gains in stocks. It’s rare to see the S&P 500 reaching new highs while it’s undervalued. But’s that’s where we are today.
Turkey is the summer’s crisis. Analysts are warning of dire global consequences. But Turkey isn’t a big problem. It will even boost the U.S. stock market.
Many investors worry about trade wars, inflation and other news. Yet stock prices are ignoring all that. Most stocks are simply moving higher.
Lately, this indicator has become a big story. Many investors think it signals a bear market. But history shows it’s actually a buy signal.
A recent argument from the bears is that the gains in the market this year are due to just the FAANG stocks. But that’s not true.
Strong GDP growth is good for stocks. This means investors should consider aggressive positions for the next three months.
Large companies, fearing a trade war, are moving products around the world before tariffs increase. This has important implications for the stock market.
Earnings growth rises and falls as the economy grows and contracts. And with an earnings peak in the rearview mirror, it’s time for investors to be worried.
This rare and ominous signal has been an early warning sign for every recession in the past 60 years. But this time is different.
As the trade war with China starts, that country is likely to lose more than the U.S. That means the trade war won’t last long.
This chart shows that market action points to a rally in Mexican stocks, and the catalyst could be the new populist president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell eight days in a row before delivering a gain on Friday. This happened just five other times since 1900.
In 2007, banks were hoping things would be different. They ignored history. But it turns out that just hoping for the best is a bad strategy.
One indicator’s last sell signal came at the end of January. That was the exact day the S&P 500 Index peaked. Now, we are getting the first buy signal since that decline.
Much has changed since the ’80s. But the wisdom of the bond market hasn’t. Bond traders often warn of problems before traders in the stock market spot the changes.
Mortgage rates tell us more than the cost to finance a home. They also tell us about the risk of a bear market in home prices.
Members of the Fed try to manage how fast the economy grows. Usually, they manage to slow the economy. But they also end up causing a recession.
Gains in oil seem like a natural response to any action against Iran. But as this chart shows, oil is now at an extreme level only seen in bubbles.
The last time unemployment hit 3.9% was December 2000. That year, the internet bubble popped. Stocks were nearly 20% below their highs when unemployment bottomed.
A bear market officially requires a 20% decline, but the recent market action probably feels like a bear market to many investors.
Headlines warn that the inverted yield curve signals a bear market. But there’s a problem with that news: The yield curve is normal, not inverted.
Trump’s attack on an important industry, like Kennedy’s, accelerated in the spring of a midterm election year. History says this could be bearish for the stock market.
Several weeks ago, I concluded that rewarding shareholders with buybacks and dividends is the best choice. Now, I want to explain why the other choices both destroy wealth._
Small-caps lead the market. They fall the most in bear markets, and they gain the most in bull markets. That makes signals in small-caps important to watch.
A bull market climbs a wall of worry. This means prices rise when traders worry. Unfortunately, there aren’t a lot of traders worrying right now.
Hedge funds are the smart money. Many of them, especially the largest, are very successful. That means it’s important to watch what they buy and sell.
Patterns show where to expect fear or greed to play an important role in the price action. And a rare pattern tells us where a stock market rally could run into trouble.
Most analysts wait for prices to fall 20% before declaring a bear market. That’s a widely accepted, but deeply flawed, approach.
Breadth usually turns down before a bear market. But there’s no sign of weakness in breadth for now. That means stock market averages should reach new highs soon.
A chart of the S&P 500 Index shows two very important price levels. Hedge fund traders buy or sell contracts when prices touch the ratios.
Tax cuts for corporations provided the latest reason to demonize corporations. In particular, some object to massive share buybacks, which they view as anti-employee.
Recent plans to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports have economists worried. But this isn’t the first tariff announcement in recent months.
Tariffs are back in the news. But policy makers at the Fed seem to be out of touch and set to repeat mistakes like those seen in the 1930s.
Based on history, we know the next 12 months after a sell-off are unlikely to be average. In fact, we should see a big price move.
Markets behave certain ways at certain times. For example, a sharp drop and sudden reversal signals an important bottom in the S&P 500 Index.
Initially, the stock market declined on the news of inflation. But this chart shows inflation isn’t anything to worry about.
Higher risks mean higher returns. There are millions of examples of this rule. Well, there’s an old saying that there’s an exception to every rule…
The Federal Reserve is watching closely for signs of inflation. But until inflation actually appears, now is the time to buy stocks.
One sector that’s undervalued is emerging markets. And this chart shows emerging markets could outperform the S&P 500 in the future.
One of the more popular opinions is that stocks are overbought. The problem is that few experts tell us what overbought means.
Bond king Jeffrey Gundlach said that if the 10-year yield rises above 2.63%, it could start to hurt equities. On Friday, the rate was at 2.64%.
There’s a reason the Super Bowl indicator works. And since it does work, that means we can even use the stock market to predict the Super Bowl.
This is just the seventh time this rare signal has happened since 2002. And it’s saying the odds of a market sell-off just increased.
At least for now, traders don’t agree with the Fed. In the futures markets, traders are betting with real money that interest rates are going to decline.
After a strong gain in 2017, many investors are worried about 2018. One concern is that the good times can’t last forever.
Lumber prices are an important economic indicator. High demand for lumber means homebuilders are building houses, which boosts economic activity.
Crashes always seem to come out of nowhere. But, in hindsight, we realize that all the elements for a crash were in place months before prices fell.
Past performance isn’t a guide to the future. But it’s likely companies that aggressively used tax shelters in the past will find new ones in the future.
Low rates mean slow economic growth. Traders are expecting a recession, possibly starting at the end of next year. This is consistent with my indicators.
We often see certain trends in cash flow. These trends show up as patterns in the stock market. That’s why now is the time to buy stocks in Japan.
Using an indicator called the VIX Fix, we can see what market volatility was before 1990. That’s helpful when putting the current market into context.
This chart shows that there is serious weakness in the employment market. There are several possible causes for the decline…
Investors devote countless hours searching for stock market indicators. However, they rarely consider one of the most important long-term indicators.
Proposed corporate tax reform sounds good for earnings on paper. But, as this chart shows, corporations aren’t paying the top rate.
Friday is a big day for the stock market. That’s when we see the monthly employment report. That report almost always creates volatility.
It’s the marriage of an investment banker’s mind with technology that makes Amazon unique. It’s also what indicates Amazon stock could increase by 50%.
The president has a significant impact on the Fed since each president appoints a chair. President Donald Trump now has his chance to leave his mark.
Among the bears’ most interesting arguments is that stocks are overvalued. But with interest rates where they are, stocks are deeply undervalued.
The Fed tries to stop raising rates before it starts a recession. But that’s hard to do … and it usually isn’t successful.
It has been almost impossible for investors to make money in Japan. But stocks are rallying, closing at a 21-year high this week.
As Hurricane Irma approached Florida, traders looked for possible gains in orange juice. But the smart money was selling orange juice instead of buying.
We should expect a big price move soon. And for now, I’m switching camps. I’m a bull, at least until this indicator reverses again.
Small caps always lead the market, both up and down. For now, the trend is up. When the decline starts, it will be important to sell.
As hurricanes approached, gasoline demand increased as supply shrank, and prices rose. But sometimes price gouging is less obvious, as in the case of new homes.
Harvey will affect millions of lives, the economy of Texas, the nation’s economy and the stock market.
If employment is increasing, tax receipts should be growing, But at the end of August, employers were making smaller payroll tax deposits.
A bull market can only continue when most stocks are moving up. When too many stocks are declining, the bull market ends.
Markets are inherently unstable. And right now, the housing market is in a rare state of equilibrium. This can’t last for much longer.
You may not know who Luis Fonsi, Daddy Yankee and DJ Khaled are. But they’re important to know because there was a study about how pop music relates to the stock market.
Analysts expect this African country to recover from its first annual contraction in 25 years. More important for investors, the stock market turned bullish.
We’re enjoying the third-longest bull market in history … but the returns of the current bull market have been a little disappointing to many investors.
Losses hurt. This is true emotionally, financially and mathematically. And some homeowners are learning a painful math lesson even as real estate recovers.
Economists talk about growth in terms of GDP or income. These factors are important, but they don’t tell me anything about the average family.
Conventional wisdom tells us that cheap oil should make alternative energy sources unattractive. But clean energy stocks are defying conventional wisdom.
Greece is almost a synonym for unending economic crisis. But despite the problems, investors are buying Greek stocks.
Turning back the clock is always a popular idea in the country, as President Donald Trump’s election demonstrated.
There was some good news in the Congressional Budget Office’s report last week. But the report seems to be using optimistic assumptions.
The headlines are clear: Oil will never be able to pull out of this bear market. But there are some bullish investors in the market.
Dow Theory is a simple way to define the stock market’s trend. However, believing this theory could be an expensive mistake.
A poll of economists tells us to expect a pretty good unemployment report this Friday. But other government data tell us to look for weak jobs data.
Malls are in different markets. Malls in major markets are doing just fine. The malls in tertiary markets are ones that are struggling.
Market timing is difficult to do well. There are tools that work. But the ones that work aren’t among the most common market indicators.
With a history of defaulting on its debt, it would be natural for investors to proceed with caution with Argentina. But that’s not the case.
Every day, the stock market moves. And every night, articles appear explaining the move. But in the long run, only one thing moves the stock market.
A double top is in place in Russia. It looks a lot like the one that formed in 1998, when the crash in Russia caused a worldwide market sell-off.
We expect 10-year yields to move higher when the Fed raises short-term interest rates. But nothing seems to be normal in the current economy.
Even though there are shortcomings, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is useful. And with a small modification, it can become powerful.
Traders and economists often say the most expensive words in the English language are “this time is different.” But maybe this time is different.
There’s a good chance some of President Donald Trump’s proposed budget will become policy. And every policy change creates winners and losers.
A Gallup poll found that only 54% of American households own stocks. For the rest of Americans, paying today’s bills replaced investing in the future.
Right now, small-cap stocks are performing worse than large-cap stocks, which is a sign of weakness in the broad market.
More than 90% of companies in the S&P 500 Index recently reported first-quarter earnings … and the results are the best we’ve seen in more than five years.
Fed economists concluded that low interest rates could last for years. This means that consumers who save money are losing buying power.
To get qualified employees, businesses will need to pay more. Higher wages should contribute to higher inflation. This could finally push inflation above 2%.
Gold is an investment linked to crisis. Gold buyers are telling us they’re worried. Political risks dominate Europe … and investors are turning to gold.
Technical analysis is the study of prices, and it can be applied to any price data. Right now, the picture for home prices is bullish.
The CAC 40 is a benchmark French stock market index. The day after Sunday’s election, the index gained 4.5%, breaking out to new highs for the year.
Postelection rallies are common. They reflect hope. Performance in the first 100 days reflects reality. And President Donald Trump’s first 100 days are average.
Many traders say that unless the Dow Jones Industrial Average falls by 20%, we aren’t in a bear market. That’s a little too simple.
Fundamentals change slowly. That’s why the stock market is little changed most days. But in the long run, those boring days add up to big gains.
Wall Street firms are chasing their dreams with computing power. And what they’re dreaming of is obvious: making lots of money.
We could be enjoying a bull market that might last until 2028, and over the next 11 years, the Dow could reach 60,000. It won’t go straight up, though.
Instead of worrying about the dollar, there are actually a number of technical and fundamental reasons to expect continued dollar strength.
While the Federal Reserve is raising rates in response to improved economic news, traders seem to be worried about the political situation around the world.
Researchers at the Cleveland branch of the Federal Reserve have found that the “head and shoulders” pattern can be traded profitably.
Many are calling auto loans the next subprime crisis. They’re too polite to point out the cause of the problem, but I will assign blame to the responsible.
Some investors like to ignore losses, but a loss is real whether you sell or not. And ignoring it and refusing to sell risks even more money.
When the Federal Reserve raises rates, market pundits like to talk about the sell-off they expect to see. But will a stumble really happen?
You should probably forget everything you think you know about volatility. That means you’ll bring an open mind to the current market situation.
Central bankers have a complicated relationship with inflation. They want some inflation because they believe that is good, but any higher than that is bad.
It seems safe to say the broad stock market is overbought. But average investors should look at where stocks are now relative to the long term.
Warren Buffett is the world’s greatest investor, but he rarely speaks about how he achieves his success. We should focus on what he does with his money.
The German public has been strongly opposed to using their tax dollars to subsidize banks in other countries. Unless that changes, the EU might not survive.
It seems that there could be significant consequences if President Donald Trump fails to deliver after lifting spirits and stock prices so much.
You might think the time to trade Valentine’s Day is before the holiday. However, it’s not too late to make a literal “flowers and chocolate” trade.
Market analysts often misinterpret the data they’re reading. That’s what seems to be happening in small-cap stocks, or stocks of smaller companies.
For those who believe it’s always darkest before the dawn, there are great long-term investments in countries that seem overwhelmed by bad news.
Good analysis means simply having an edge over everybody else because you worked harder and found ideas where no one else was looking.
Supposedly, if interest rates are high, bonds are attractive and stocks suffer. But like so much conventional wisdom, this doesn’t hold up under scrutiny.
The bears are going to miss out by focusing their attention on what the past can tell us. Let me show you the best way to look forward.
Markets rarely perform as everyone expects them to do. I believe we’re in for an amazing roller coaster ride in 2017, and if you like trades that deliver quickly, you’ll want to be a part of it.