This chart is warning of a recession. It’s an important chart. Yet few individual investors are even aware of the indicator in it.
If you’re hoping for a swift rebound for the stock market in 2019, the latest holiday sales numbers will be welcome news…
There is a major event set to take place in the stock market this Wednesday. It’s one that analysts and investors have been speculating about for months. Some have attributed this single event to whether or not the U.S. economy heads into a recession in 2019. At 2 p.m. EST, the Federal Reserve will announce […]
Forecasts are hard to make. But profits tend to rely on forecasts. For a small business, it’s important to forecast well. If there are too many customers and not enough inventory, the business can fail. Too much inventory can also lead to failure. Hiring plans and inventory depend on future expectations. Owners might get it wrong, […]
Traders were right that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent speech was important. But buying stocks was the wrong reaction.
Over the past few weeks, I’ve explained my position that there will not be a recession in 2019. This time, I’m coming at it from the real estate market.
We’re in a deflationary boom period driven by rapid technological developments. And the stocks you want to own are the ones creating this boom.
Businesses and consumers are thriving. Here are a few important indicators that reflect the overall bullish outlook on the United States economy.
Expectations were for a whopping 17.3% sales growth for Black Friday weekend online sales. But even those sky-high expectations got shattered.
While the economy is driven by data, stock prices are driven by emotion, whether good or bad. And right now, fear has a strong grip on the overall market.
We’re in an era of rising interest rates and declining liquidity — both courtesy of the Federal Reserve’s policies over the last three years.
U.S. credit card debt topped $1 trillion this year for the first time ever. And many Americans are forced to make some difficult choices…
Consumer prices’ slow and steady climb will force the Fed to keep raising interest rates. Inflation needs to be subdued for the Fed to stop raising rates.
You might remember the last recession. Unemployment jumped from 4.8% to 10%. The S&P 500 Index dropped more than 55%. It sent such a shockwave through the business world that it was given the moniker of “Great,” though it certainly didn’t feel so great when it was happening. That recession officially ended in June 2009. […]
Everywhere you look, someone else is calling for a crash. But a lot of impressive, undeniable facts about our economic boom are being overlooked.
Since 2005, there have been eight years in which interest rates have gone up. However, they really haven’t had a bad effect on profit growth over the long run.
It looks like everything is humming along nicely. But we are starting to see cracks in this amazing economic picture that could spell trouble.
The current cycle will change from expansion to recession someday. That day may be close. No matter when it comes, the United States is doomed.
There’s been a lot of talk over the last month that rising interest rates are wreaking havoc on the market. Don’t let the headlines fool you.
Despite various headwinds, carriers placed a record number of orders for new trucks this quarter. September saw orders for semitrucks jump 92%.
While the Federal Reserve may be a big threat to President Donald Trump’s agenda, it isn’t the biggest threat to the stock market.
Nearly 20 years later, I’m finding some frightening similarities between the 2000 meltdown and today … and it’s not necessarily the indicators you’d expect.
As interest rates rise, Americans are going to get squeezed. And if you take the American consumer out of the picture, the economy starts to stumble.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that there are currently more job positions open than there are workers in 12 out of 14 industries. Michael Carr shares more info.
On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy, unleashing the scariest economic storm in American history since the Great Depression.
Federal Reserve officials watch hundreds of data series. Among the most important is this one. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell even spoke about it recently.
Twenty years ago, current Fed policies would have sunk stocks. Now, other central banks around the world are offsetting the bearish influence of the Fed.
Elected Washington politicians have been anything but the “representatives” of we 327 million Americans. Keep that in mind when you vote on November 6.
There’s an indicator I watch to determine whether or not the U.S. economy has turned the corner. And so far in the latest quarter, it’s trending higher.
The Federal Reserve meets this week. Traders believe it will raise short-term interest rates. Higher rates slow economic growth, and the Fed believes it needs to slow growth.
Homebuyers are rushing to take advantage of easy money while they can. But as the easy money dries up, so too will demand.
Members of the Fed try to manage how fast the economy grows. Usually, they manage to slow the economy. But they also end up causing a recession.
The Fed has historically been behind the curve. And right now, it is late to the party as well, and it will precede the next major rally for the stock market. Let me explain…
President Donald Trump has been in office for more than a year now — and I don’t think he would be impressed with his economy.
The trickle-down effects of protectionist policies like tariffs will upend the U.S. economy as we know it. Here’s how it works…
This is the start of a massive transformation in our daily lives. And it’s going to create opportunities for us to profit.
Thanks to our representatives in Washington, we face a future of higher interest rates, a falling dollar and falling stock prices.
The Federal Reserve is watching closely for signs of inflation. But until inflation actually appears, now is the time to buy stocks.
Bond king Jeffrey Gundlach said that if the 10-year yield rises above 2.63%, it could start to hurt equities. On Friday, the rate was at 2.64%.
Many analysts claim fundamental ratios show that stocks are overpriced. But these ratios don’t tell us very much by themselves. They need context.
Lumber prices are an important economic indicator. High demand for lumber means homebuilders are building houses, which boosts economic activity.
The reason the stock market cares about the tax bill so much is because this reform would cut corporate taxes almost in half. At least, for some companies.
Low rates mean slow economic growth. Traders are expecting a recession, possibly starting at the end of next year. This is consistent with my indicators.
The recent tax bill that was passed lowers the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%. That will make a huge difference to companies that spend a lot of money.
The inflation that the Fed has been searching for has shown up in the most unexpected places, and it can’t be ignored any longer.
The latest survey shows that the price of Thanksgiving dinner will be the lowest in five years. And the reason for this is simple…oil prices. Here’s why.
This chart shows that there is serious weakness in the employment market. There are several possible causes for the decline…
The Federal Reserve has one major policy meeting left in 2017 and its decision regarding rates could be the catalyst that derails the market’s rally.
A new transportation system is coming soon that will completely change the auto industry and, in time, life as we know it.
What’s so interesting (and dangerous) is that it’s not mortgage debt, but all the nonhousing debt that’s leading the charge this time.
Proposed corporate tax reform sounds good for earnings on paper. But, as this chart shows, corporations aren’t paying the top rate.
The St. Louis Federal Reserve has done its best to create a Financial Stress Index that tells the stress level of the economy.
Wall Street still has a monopoly on one essential part of trading … but in time, the internet is going to wipe out this current advantage.
The Fed tries to stop raising rates before it starts a recession. But that’s hard to do … and it usually isn’t successful.
There’s another storm ready to pummel the U.S. and leave behind a painfully slow recovery that could eat away at your wealth if you’re not prepared…
Millennials are a focus of my Profits Unlimited service. This generation is also why I base my strategy on one thing. Just one thing.
Few sectors were hit harder than insurance companies in 2008, so it stands to reason that they learned their lessons. But some lessons are not so easily learned…
While the flooding in Texas deserves our attention, there is a dangerous analogous threat: the perfect storm brewing within the U.S. financial system.
If employment is increasing, tax receipts should be growing, But at the end of August, employers were making smaller payroll tax deposits.
Since the recession, the job market has shifted so much that it’s created an entire new trend in the American workforce.
My market-based forecast is bearish for the economy. It’s also bad news for anyone looking at financing a big purchase after December.
Economists talk about growth in terms of GDP or income. These factors are important, but they don’t tell me anything about the average family.
Stock market news has continued to weigh heavily toward politics compared to the usual economic indicators, stock news and even earnings.
Harley-Davidson recently received an up-close look at the dangers of not paying close enough attention to the tastes of America’s millennial generation.
Taking a road trip to Minnesota seemed like a great idea. So, too, did the idea of renting an RV through a peer-to-peer service called Outdoorsy.
In calls with analysts, 61% of companies warned that the strong dollar is a cause of concern. CEOs might be trying to manage expectations.
There was some good news in the Congressional Budget Office’s report last week. But the report seems to be using optimistic assumptions.
Malls are in different markets. Malls in major markets are doing just fine. The malls in tertiary markets are ones that are struggling.
There’s no doubt our economy is just sputtering along, which isn’t necessarily bad. But the fact it continuously fails to live up to set assumptions is problematic.
With careful planning and a little knowledge, we can take advantage of a few techniques to build a nest egg to protect against the next financial collapse…
With Macy’s, Sears, Chico’s and other mall retailers all shuttering locations, it seems big malls are going to be in trouble sooner rather than later.
Though it may not feel like the tech bubble of 1999, there are clear similarities between then and today. And we all know how it ended then.
With the Fed raising interest rates on the heels of a disturbing report on U.S. consumer debt, I’m left wondering how the rest of the country will fare.
We are faced with a big problem that is threatening to sink our economy, and it’s crucial that we take action now.
Businesses and consumers have had enough time to react to the U.S. presidential election in a positive fashion. There’s just one problem: That isn’t the case.
There are more job openings than new hires. This indicates employers have problems finding qualified applicants, which is important for a couple of reasons.
June 1 marked the first day of hurricane season. When it comes to Wall Street, a different kind of storm is brewing, and now is a good time to start preparing…
Despite Washington’s scandals and the mass media headlines predicting doom and gloom, the U.S. economy is picking up steam.
More than 90% of companies in the S&P 500 Index recently reported first-quarter earnings … and the results are the best we’ve seen in more than five years.
To get qualified employees, businesses will need to pay more. Higher wages should contribute to higher inflation. This could finally push inflation above 2%.
Few economic indicators look ahead, but one that does is the ISM Report on Business. This makes the ISM survey a must-read for serious investors.
In a recent survey, 83% of global fund managers saw the U.S. as the “most overvalued region” among the world’s equities marketplaces.
Postelection rallies are common. They reflect hope. Performance in the first 100 days reflects reality. And President Donald Trump’s first 100 days are average.
Health care spending now accounts for more than 17% of the U.S. economy. Even with insurance coverage, more adults are struggling with health care expenses.
When even the richest of American cities start to struggle with pension problems, it shows you we’re approaching a crisis point.
For one group of workers, the pay has been anything but stagnant. And yet, employers are still having trouble getting enough people for the job.
I turned to you last week for feedback. I was curious if you felt your happiness in the U.S. was lessening — and, if so, were you considering alternatives?
America’s car-buying boom is fueled by so-called subprime auto loans that are very much like the infamous subprime mortgages of the 2008 financial crisis.
Wall Street is seeing strong job growth as a green light for the Federal Reserve to boost interest rates at the close of its meeting on Wednesday, March 15.
Central bankers have a complicated relationship with inflation. They want some inflation because they believe that is good, but any higher than that is bad.
If you look at the big jump that happened in the Dollar Index starting in 2013 … this did not happen because of strength. It happened because of weakness.
Increasingly, the stars are lining up in a way that will not spare a key group of companies in the retail sector — dollar stores.
The economy-wide benefits of having affordable health care outweigh the costs. Here’s my case … and I want to know if it’s a convincing one to you.
It seems that there could be significant consequences if President Donald Trump fails to deliver after lifting spirits and stock prices so much.
With more than 70% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting for the fourth quarter, earnings are, to use the technical term, fantastic.
The largest generation in the U.S. — numbering 92 million strong — has only just stepped into the early phases of its ultimate buying potential.
Due to a myriad of factors, the number of manufacturing jobs in America has declined rapidly in the past several decades.
The U.S. economy is being steered by black swan president and economists with isolationist views. It’s an environment that breeds inflation and screams: “Buy gold!”
If you believe President Donald Trump’s promise to grow the U.S. GDP, the bull market could easily continue. However, a major roadblock may be in his path.
Increasingly, our country’s economy is being defined and dominated by one generation’s preferences, habits and spending tendencies.
Once “too big to fail” banks have grown so large that it raises a troubling question: Are they now effectively too big to save in the next financial crisis?
As Donald Trump’s inauguration shows, it’s absolutely crucial to prepare for the unexpected. Especially since 2017 may have some surprises in store for the stock market…
Minimum-wage workers got their increase: Now they’re facing the sharp bite of inflation, which means increasing prices for coffee, ice cream and everything in between.
A new study says that 94% of the 10 million jobs created after 2008 were temp positions. That’s 10 million jobs with no security and little future … it’s a recipe for disaster.
As we prepare to tick over to 2017, it’s important that we all take steps to break out of our comfort zones, expand our knowledge base, and take intelligent, calculated risks.
Stocks have reached stupid valuations, and bonds are under assault from Fed rate hikes. So, here we are, at a point in history when down is far more likely for each than up.
America is stuck on a merry-go-round that is failing to boost our weak economy. It’s time for investors to return to hard assets for security and growth.
Wall Street expects a rate hike this month. But we’ve been there and done that. Of the four promised 2016 hikes, we’ve seen zero … but is the economy really ready for one now?
Labor strikes were relatively common 30 or so years ago. They’ve become increasingly uncommon since. But we may be on the verge of a reversal in that trend.
If you consider home ownership a core of the American dream, then October may have resurrected those fading hopes. And it could get even better once a certain generation gets involved.
Remember in the 1980s when interest rates were at an ungodly 20%? Thirty-seven years from today, we may look back on 2016 in the same way … as the year inflation truly bottomed.
As the Internet of Things takes over, it will do more than provide convenience. It promises to steal nearly all existing jobs. Without change, this is bad news all around for pretty much all of us.
Yellen & Co. just finished another meeting and it’s no shock that interest rates remain unchanged, but December could prove to be dangerous for the market.
For the first time ever a self-driving truck completed a commercial delivery last week. With real jobs on the line, we can no longer relegate robots and A.I. to the realm of science fiction.
The job market remains ugly. We’re not creating enough high-paying jobs to support the middle class, and we’re replacing low-paying jobs with robots. Where does that leave us?
Do you want to follow how often the U.S. economy fails to live up to expectations? Well … there’s an app for that. And what is says about gross domestic product (GDP) isn’t pretty.
As another earnings season comes to an end, one thing immediately jumps out: Stock prices are out of whack from their core value — earnings. And the implications are dire.
Despite the Fed’s blather, America’s chemistry is off. An ingredient necessary for a vibrant economy is missing. One look at the data will show you exactly what’s missing and why.
Price discovery. Never heard the term? Remember it, because it explains the logic defying melt-up the market is going through right now.
Since 1920, only six presidents have served a full two terms, or eight years. Obama is about to make it seven, resulting in a rare market cycle with an ominous outlook.
Wall Street celebrated on Friday, roaring higher July’s jobs data. But it’s too early to give the all-clear, and it’s definitely far too early for the Fed to start raising rates.
What we are led to believe as “truth” in America is no different than what the Soviets were led to believe, and only by disengaging will you get facts to defend investment decisions.
The June jobs report blew past expectations, but the devil is in the details. An economy built on falling corporate revenue, declining goods orders and low-paying jobs cannot stand.
This “most hated” bull market will soon become a hated bear market, and with margin debt rising unchecked, those with overleveraged accounts are going to get wiped out.
The stock market has reached a near-euphoric level of buying enthusiasm, and several billionaires are now selling into the rally. It’s time to follow the money, but not the crowd.
George Soros hasn’t been shy about his opinion on the potential for an EU collapse or a China-fueled economic crisis. But is the U.S. in just as bad, if not worse, shape?
Profits have been falling for some time, and yet wages are rising across the U.S. The situation is untenable, and Wall Street is eventually going to see through this mirage.
The market has grown used to cries of “Deflation!” and dovish Fed speeches. So much so, that early indicators are being ignored. The fact is, inflation is about to blindside Wall Street.
The March jobs report is being hailed as a win for the U.S. economy, but forward-looking layoff data offers a grim look at why growth will fade and why interest rates aren’t rising any time soon.
Wall Street is pushing a positive earnings narrative this season. But, with corporations doing everything to please shareholders, are the true results really that positive? When the veil comes down, so too will the market.