Category: U.S. Economy

If you’re hoping for a swift rebound for the stock market in 2019, the latest holiday sales numbers will be welcome news…

There is a major event set to take place in the stock market this Wednesday. It’s one that analysts and investors have been speculating about for months. Some have attributed this single event to whether or not the U.S. economy heads into a recession in 2019. At 2 p.m. EST, the Federal Reserve will announce […]

Forecasts are hard to make. But profits tend to rely on forecasts. For a small business, it’s important to forecast well. If there are too many customers and not enough inventory, the business can fail. Too much inventory can also lead to failure. Hiring plans and inventory depend on future expectations. Owners might get it wrong, […]

Traders were right that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent speech was important. But buying stocks was the wrong reaction.

An indicator with an impeccable track record has all but triggered a countdown to the next recession. It warrants caution.

Over the past few weeks, I’ve explained my position that there will not be a recession in 2019. This time, I’m coming at it from the real estate market.

We’re in a deflationary boom period driven by rapid technological developments. And the stocks you want to own are the ones creating this boom.

Where do we go from here? From my perch, it looks like the markets have already priced in the Federal Reserve’s work, at least in the short term.

Businesses and consumers are thriving. Here are a few important indicators that reflect the overall bullish outlook on the United States economy.

Expectations were for a whopping 17.3% sales growth for Black Friday weekend online sales. But even those sky-high expectations got shattered.

Black Friday is always the Friday after Thanksgiving, and shopping habits on that day have helped drive year-end growth for the stock market.

While the economy is driven by data, stock prices are driven by emotion, whether good or bad. And right now, fear has a strong grip on the overall market.

We’re in an era of rising interest rates and declining liquidity — both courtesy of the Federal Reserve’s policies over the last three years.

Competition is what made capitalism a success story. Without competition, capitalism is simply a big racket, with us as the marks.

U.S. credit card debt topped $1 trillion this year for the first time ever. And many Americans are forced to make some difficult choices…

Consumer prices’ slow and steady climb will force the Fed to keep raising interest rates. Inflation needs to be subdued for the Fed to stop raising rates.

You might remember the last recession. Unemployment jumped from 4.8% to 10%. The S&P 500 Index dropped more than 55%. It sent such a shockwave through the business world that it was given the moniker of “Great,” though it certainly didn’t feel so great when it was happening. That recession officially ended in June 2009. […]

Everywhere you look, someone else is calling for a crash. But a lot of impressive, undeniable facts about our economic boom are being overlooked.

Since 2005, there have been eight years in which interest rates have gone up. However, they really haven’t had a bad effect on profit growth over the long run.

The long-term interest-rate trend just shifted, ending a 28.9-year trend. And that’s not good for businesses, consumers or stocks.

It looks like everything is humming along nicely. But we are starting to see cracks in this amazing economic picture that could spell trouble.

The current cycle will change from expansion to recession someday. That day may be close. No matter when it comes, the United States is doomed.

Too much of America has been left behind in the latest economic boom, and it is creating a problem that will derail further gains.

There’s been a lot of talk over the last month that rising interest rates are wreaking havoc on the market. Don’t let the headlines fool you.

Despite various headwinds, carriers placed a record number of orders for new trucks this quarter. September saw orders for semitrucks jump 92%.

If you only pay attention to averages, you’ll miss the most important things about the economy. And it’s likely to cost you a lot of money.

While the Federal Reserve may be a big threat to President Donald Trump’s agenda, it isn’t the biggest threat to the stock market.

Nearly 20 years later, I’m finding some frightening similarities between the 2000 meltdown and today … and it’s not necessarily the indicators you’d expect.

Stock prices reflect future expectations. And data tells us investors will grow pessimistic next year as both economic and earnings growth slow down.

As interest rates rise, Americans are going to get squeezed. And if you take the American consumer out of the picture, the economy starts to stumble.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that there are currently more job positions open than there are workers in 12 out of 14 industries. Michael Carr shares more info.

U.S. jobless claims are even lower than the headlines reveal. But there is some bad news: There are too many people working.

On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy, unleashing the scariest economic storm in American history since the Great Depression.

Federal Reserve officials watch hundreds of data series. Among the most important is this one. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell even spoke about it recently.

Americans owe record amounts on their credit cards, car loans, student loans and mortgages. But, as I’ll show you, there is a way to profit from the trend of rising consumer debt.

President Donald Trump has been in office for more than a year now — and I don’t think he would be impressed with his economy.

This once-illegal activity is the single largest short-term driver of the stock market.

Tariffs are back in the news. But policy makers at the Fed seem to be out of touch and set to repeat mistakes like those seen in the 1930s.

This is the start of a massive transformation in our daily lives. And it’s going to create opportunities for us to profit.

Thanks to our representatives in Washington, we face a future of higher interest rates, a falling dollar and falling stock prices.

After a sharp sell-off, the Dow was down more than 10%. Declines of 10% in less than two weeks are fairly common. Yet the most recent one stands out as unique.

The Federal Reserve is watching closely for signs of inflation. But until inflation actually appears, now is the time to buy stocks.

Bond king Jeffrey Gundlach said that if the 10-year yield rises above 2.63%, it could start to hurt equities. On Friday, the rate was at 2.64%.

At least for now, traders don’t agree with the Fed. In the futures markets, traders are betting with real money that interest rates are going to decline.

Many analysts claim fundamental ratios show that stocks are overpriced. But these ratios don’t tell us very much by themselves. They need context.

Lumber prices are an important economic indicator. High demand for lumber means homebuilders are building houses, which boosts economic activity.

Amazon is about to strike at a new target. I’m certain many of you own these stocks. Well, here’s what happens when Amazon targets your stock…

The reason the stock market cares about the tax bill so much is because this reform would cut corporate taxes almost in half. At least, for some companies.

Low rates mean slow economic growth. Traders are expecting a recession, possibly starting at the end of next year. This is consistent with my indicators.

The recent tax bill that was passed lowers the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%. That will make a huge difference to companies that spend a lot of money.

What did your readers have to say about Amazon Key, the company’s new In-House Delivery service? Find out in our latest mailbag round up.

The latest survey shows that the price of Thanksgiving dinner will be the lowest in five years. And the reason for this is simple…oil prices. Here’s why.

An important thing to look at when gauging our economy is the overall consumer confidence outlook. Right now, that outlook is extremely positive.

The Federal Reserve has one major policy meeting left in 2017 and its decision regarding rates could be the catalyst that derails the market’s rally.

A new transportation system is coming soon that will completely change the auto industry and, in time, life as we know it.

The important question is whether two straight months of gains is a sign of exhaustion or strength. Fortunately, there’s good news here.

What’s so interesting (and dangerous) is that it’s not mortgage debt, but all the nonhousing debt that’s leading the charge this time.

Proposed corporate tax reform sounds good for earnings on paper. But, as this chart shows, corporations aren’t paying the top rate.

There’s a precedent for something as “unprecedented” as tax reform under an unloved president. And the precedent is bullish.

The St. Louis Federal Reserve has done its best to create a Financial Stress Index that tells the stress level of the economy.

Wall Street still has a monopoly on one essential part of trading … but in time, the internet is going to wipe out this current advantage.

The president has a significant impact on the Fed since each president appoints a chair. President Donald Trump now has his chance to leave his mark.

The Fed tries to stop raising rates before it starts a recession. But that’s hard to do … and it usually isn’t successful.

There’s another storm ready to pummel the U.S. and leave behind a painfully slow recovery that could eat away at your wealth if you’re not prepared…

2017 will see the most houses built in the last decade. And within the housing boom, another trend is in place.

Millennials are a focus of my Profits Unlimited service. This generation is also why I base my strategy on one thing. Just one thing.

Few sectors were hit harder than insurance companies in 2008, so it stands to reason that they learned their lessons. But some lessons are not so easily learned…

Harvey will affect millions of lives, the economy of Texas, the nation’s economy and the stock market.

While the flooding in Texas deserves our attention, there is a dangerous analogous threat: the perfect storm brewing within the U.S. financial system.

If employment is increasing, tax receipts should be growing, But at the end of August, employers were making smaller payroll tax deposits.

Markets are inherently unstable. And right now, the housing market is in a rare state of equilibrium. This can’t last for much longer.

Since the recession, the job market has shifted so much that it’s created an entire new trend in the American workforce.

My market-based forecast is bearish for the economy. It’s also bad news for anyone looking at financing a big purchase after December.

There’s one important thing the media isn’t telling you. And if you don’t know this, you’re going to miss out on massive gains in the stock market.

Economists talk about growth in terms of GDP or income. These factors are important, but they don’t tell me anything about the average family.

Stock market news has continued to weigh heavily toward politics compared to the usual economic indicators, stock news and even earnings.

You never want to find yourself unprepared for the next correction … and we’ve got a few bumps in the road that we can watch for.

Harley-Davidson recently received an up-close look at the dangers of not paying close enough attention to the tastes of America’s millennial generation.

Taking a road trip to Minnesota seemed like a great idea. So, too, did the idea of renting an RV through a peer-to-peer service called Outdoorsy.

Turning back the clock is always a popular idea in the country, as President Donald Trump’s election demonstrated.

In calls with analysts, 61% of companies warned that the strong dollar is a cause of concern. CEOs might be trying to manage expectations.

There was some good news in the Congressional Budget Office’s report last week. But the report seems to be using optimistic assumptions.

A poll of economists tells us to expect a pretty good unemployment report this Friday. But other government data tell us to look for weak jobs data.

Malls are in different markets. Malls in major markets are doing just fine. The malls in tertiary markets are ones that are struggling.

There’s no doubt our economy is just sputtering along, which isn’t necessarily bad. But the fact it continuously fails to live up to set assumptions is problematic.

Our economy has a problem that could easily become the next black swan event that topples the stock market and your plans for retirement…

With careful planning and a little knowledge, we can take advantage of a few techniques to build a nest egg to protect against the next financial collapse…

With Macy’s, Sears, Chico’s and other mall retailers all shuttering locations, it seems big malls are going to be in trouble sooner rather than later.

Solar energy has emerged as a dominant force that is not only an unlimited resource, but also becoming cheaper and cheaper.

Though it may not feel like the tech bubble of 1999, there are clear similarities between then and today. And we all know how it ended then.

With the Fed raising interest rates on the heels of a disturbing report on U.S. consumer debt, I’m left wondering how the rest of the country will fare.

We expect 10-year yields to move higher when the Fed raises short-term interest rates. But nothing seems to be normal in the current economy.

We are faced with a big problem that is threatening to sink our economy, and it’s crucial that we take action now.

Businesses and consumers have had enough time to react to the U.S. presidential election in a positive fashion. There’s just one problem: That isn’t the case.

In business after business, the food industry is finding out that millennials’ preferences are different than their parents’ or the previous generation’s.

There are more job openings than new hires. This indicates employers have problems finding qualified applicants, which is important for a couple of reasons.

June 1 marked the first day of hurricane season. When it comes to Wall Street, a different kind of storm is brewing, and now is a good time to start preparing…

A Gallup poll found that only 54% of American households own stocks. For the rest of Americans, paying today’s bills replaced investing in the future.

Despite Washington’s scandals and the mass media headlines predicting doom and gloom, the U.S. economy is picking up steam.

More than 90% of companies in the S&P 500 Index recently reported first-quarter earnings … and the results are the best we’ve seen in more than five years.

Fed economists concluded that low interest rates could last for years. This means that consumers who save money are losing buying power.

To get qualified employees, businesses will need to pay more. Higher wages should contribute to higher inflation. This could finally push inflation above 2%.

Few economic indicators look ahead, but one that does is the ISM Report on Business. This makes the ISM survey a must-read for serious investors.

Given the increase in wages and salaries in the Employment Cost Index, don’t be surprised if consumer spending mounts a significant comeback.

In a recent survey, 83% of global fund managers saw the U.S. as the “most overvalued region” among the world’s equities marketplaces.

Postelection rallies are common. They reflect hope. Performance in the first 100 days reflects reality. And President Donald Trump’s first 100 days are average.

According to the National Financial Conditions Index, the Federal Reserve’s tightening process hasn’t had an impact on the markets yet.

Health care spending now accounts for more than 17% of the U.S. economy. Even with insurance coverage, more adults are struggling with health care expenses.

When even the richest of American cities start to struggle with pension problems, it shows you we’re approaching a crisis point.

One data point that I follow when it comes to gross domestic product (GDP) is the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast.

For one group of workers, the pay has been anything but stagnant. And yet, employers are still having trouble getting enough people for the job.

I turned to you last week for feedback. I was curious if you felt your happiness in the U.S. was lessening — and, if so, were you considering alternatives?

The 2009 “cash for clunkers” program created a shortage of new cars and caused prices to climb higher. It also lit a fire for new-car leasing.

America’s car-buying boom is fueled by so-called subprime auto loans that are very much like the infamous subprime mortgages of the 2008 financial crisis.

Wall Street is seeing strong job growth as a green light for the Federal Reserve to boost interest rates at the close of its meeting on Wednesday, March 15.

The last time the U.S. GDP annual growth rate topped 4% was back in 2000, so it will be a substantial achievement if President Donald Trump can pull it off.

Central bankers have a complicated relationship with inflation. They want some inflation because they believe that is good, but any higher than that is bad.

If you look at the big jump that happened in the Dollar Index starting in 2013 … this did not happen because of strength. It happened because of weakness.

If you want to know the most successful technology company in the stock market right now, it might just be a company that happens to make pizzas.

Increasingly, the stars are lining up in a way that will not spare a key group of companies in the retail sector — dollar stores.

The economy-wide benefits of having affordable health care outweigh the costs. Here’s my case … and I want to know if it’s a convincing one to you.

In 1957, a dollar of debt produced $0.54 of additional income. No longer. Debt has increased more than twice as fast as the growth of the economy.

It seems that there could be significant consequences if President Donald Trump fails to deliver after lifting spirits and stock prices so much.

With more than 70% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting for the fourth quarter, earnings are, to use the technical term, fantastic.

America has a debt problem. That shouldn’t come as a surprise.  Americans continuously told that debt is good. But these bad habits could bring the economy to a sharp and painful halt.

The largest generation in the U.S. — numbering 92 million strong — has only just stepped into the early phases of its ultimate buying potential.

Due to a myriad of factors, the number of manufacturing jobs in America has declined rapidly in the past several decades.

A healthy collectibles market can signal an equally healthy stock market. But a recent January auction revealed results that were less than inspiring … perhaps even worrying.

The U.S. economy is being steered by black swan president and economists with isolationist views. It’s an environment that breeds inflation and screams: “Buy gold!”

If you believe President Donald Trump’s promise to grow the U.S. GDP, the bull market could easily continue. However, a major roadblock may be in his path.

The latest GDP growth figures from the Commerce Department have a number of traders adopting a wait-and-see approach. But are they poised to miss out on the next big rally?

Increasingly, our country’s economy is being defined and dominated by one generation’s preferences, habits and spending tendencies.

Once “too big to fail” banks have grown so large that it raises a troubling question: Are they now effectively too big to save in the next financial crisis?

President Donald Trump promises that 4% GDP growth is coming soon. Here’s what that kind of economy would look like … and how you can profit from it.

As Donald Trump’s inauguration shows, it’s absolutely crucial to prepare for the unexpected. Especially since 2017 may have some surprises in store for the stock market…

Minimum-wage workers got their increase: Now they’re facing the sharp bite of inflation, which means increasing prices for coffee, ice cream and everything in between.

Millennials’ interest in traveling throughout the country is often mixed with a love of being active outdoors and engaging in adventurous activities.

Lately, I notice a new word popping up in companies’ investor presentations: “millennials.”

A new study says that 94% of the 10 million jobs created after 2008 were temp positions. That’s 10 million jobs with no security and little future … it’s a recipe for disaster.

Last year, average hourly wages rose at the fastest pace since 2009. And that’s just the beginning… Twenty states will lift their minimum wage in 2017. It’s as if the country has become a giant economic experiment.

As we prepare to tick over to 2017, it’s important that we all take steps to break out of our comfort zones, expand our knowledge base, and take intelligent, calculated risks.

Stocks have reached stupid valuations, and bonds are under assault from Fed rate hikes. So, here we are, at a point in history when down is far more likely for each than up.

So many promises and threats are waiting to either unfold or fizzle. Which Donald Trump will show up to his first day on the job? Wall Street’s directional future depends on that answer.

America is stuck on a merry-go-round that is failing to boost our weak economy. It’s time for investors to return to hard assets for security and growth.

Wall Street expects a rate hike this month. But we’ve been there and done that. Of the four promised 2016 hikes, we’ve seen zero … but is the economy really ready for one now?

Right now, the market is roaring higher. This could easily turn into the next big market rally … or it could end up as a sucker’s rally right before a market collapse. So which is it?

Labor strikes were relatively common 30 or so years ago. They’ve become increasingly uncommon since. But we may be on the verge of a reversal in that trend.

If you consider home ownership a core of the American dream, then October may have resurrected those fading hopes. And it could get even better once a certain generation gets involved.

The Dow topped 19,000 for the first time ever on Tuesday. Bond prices are plunging. The dollar is at a 14-year high. I even heard talk of the global economy picking up speed! Beware what comes next…

Remember in the 1980s when interest rates were at an ungodly 20%? Thirty-seven years from today, we may look back on 2016 in the same way … as the year inflation truly bottomed.

As the Internet of Things takes over, it will do more than provide convenience. It promises to steal nearly all existing jobs. Without change, this is bad news all around for pretty much all of us.

America will soon be under complete Republican control — House, Senate, president. Looking back at prior periods of single-party control reveals a rather shocking stock market discovery…

Yellen & Co. just finished another meeting and it’s no shock that interest rates remain unchanged, but December could prove to be dangerous for the market.

For the first time ever a self-driving truck completed a commercial delivery last week. With real jobs on the line, we can no longer relegate robots and A.I. to the realm of science fiction.

Manufacturing doesn’t command the same presence it once did, but it supports a healthy middle class and the overall economy, and a new body in the Oval Office isn’t going to stop the collapse.

The job market remains ugly. We’re not creating enough high-paying jobs to support the middle class, and we’re replacing low-paying jobs with robots. Where does that leave us?

Do you want to follow how often the U.S. economy fails to live up to expectations? Well … there’s an app for that. And what is says about gross domestic product (GDP) isn’t pretty.

Can you inflate a balloon by taking out the air? The answer is obvious. And, yet, Wall Street is rising (to rarefied levels) even as money is flowing out. How can this be?

As another earnings season comes to an end, one thing immediately jumps out: Stock prices are out of whack from their core value — earnings. And the implications are dire.

In a world where machines can make perfect burgers, there’s no need for $15-an-hour burger flippers. But the solution, basic income, is more science fiction than fact.

Price discovery. Never heard the term? Remember it, because it explains the logic defying melt-up the market is going through right now.

Since 1920, only six presidents have served a full two terms, or eight years. Obama is about to make it seven, resulting in a rare market cycle with an ominous outlook.

Wall Street celebrated on Friday, roaring higher July’s jobs data. But it’s too early to give the all-clear, and it’s definitely far too early for the Fed to start raising rates.

What we are led to believe as “truth” in America is no different than what the Soviets were led to believe, and only by disengaging will you get facts to defend investment decisions.

Negative rates are a financial horror show. They’re already a reality in Japan and the EU. But some banks are beginning to balk at the idea by vaulting hard currency and gold.

The June jobs report blew past expectations, but the devil is in the details. An economy built on falling corporate revenue, declining goods orders and low-paying jobs cannot stand.

This “most hated” bull market will soon become a hated bear market, and with margin debt rising unchecked, those with overleveraged accounts are going to get wiped out.

Were you convinced by the unemployment rate drop to 4.7% in May? That is what the government reported. But a closer look at the data reveals something else.

The stock market has reached a near-euphoric level of buying enthusiasm, and several billionaires are now selling into the rally. It’s time to follow the money, but not the crowd.

George Soros hasn’t been shy about his opinion on the potential for an EU collapse or a China-fueled economic crisis. But is the U.S. in just as bad, if not worse, shape?

The financial media talks about massive government and private debt incessantly. But there is one rising debt load that no one is talking about, and it could bring about another market crash.

Profits have been falling for some time, and yet wages are rising across the U.S. The situation is untenable, and Wall Street is eventually going to see through this mirage.

The market has grown used to cries of “Deflation!” and dovish Fed speeches. So much so, that early indicators are being ignored. The fact is, inflation is about to blindside Wall Street.

As millennials look to turn the tide of wage growth, weekly initial jobless claims data point to trouble for the U.S. economy. Can the next generation provide investment opportunities?

The March jobs report is being hailed as a win for the U.S. economy, but forward-looking layoff data offers a grim look at why growth will fade and why interest rates aren’t rising any time soon.

Wall Street is pushing a positive earnings narrative this season. But, with corporations doing everything to please shareholders, are the true results really that positive? When the veil comes down, so too will the market.

In the third and final part of our interview, Jim Rogers zeroes in on crushing global debt loads and their impact on gold, the U.S. dollar and why you need to globally diversify.

In an attempt to increase their profit margins, multinational companies are looking to cut their labor costs, which may mean trouble for American workers…