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Economy

What the Smart Money Did on Friday and Monday

What the Smart Money Did on Friday and Monday

Posted by | Feb 2, 2022 | , ,

My reaction to those big up days was probably like yours. Momentum (aka growth) stocks in The Bauman Letter’s model portfolio have taken a beating since the beginning of the year. So has my personal portfolio. So, when those stocks jumped like a frog off a hot highway on Friday and Monday, I breathed a sigh of relief.“ The worst must be over. The smart money is piling back in.” That’s what I wanted to think. But the facts tell a different story … and prove why smart investors ignore short-term moves like these.

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The Signal From Junk

The Signal From Junk

Posted by | Feb 1, 2022 | , ,

That happened fast. Just 15 trading days for the S&P 500 to hit correction territory (at least on an intraday basis) last week, making it one of the fastest in history to kick off a new year. That’s a bit concerning on the heels of a mostly calm 2021, where the S&P 500 barely registered a 5% decline. Does this sudden burst of volatility tell us something about the stock market? Are we now careening over the edge and staring into a bear market abyss? Before you assume that 2022’s bad start is about to turn into something worse, lean on history to guide you.

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Time the Bounce for Profit

Time the Bounce for Profit

Posted by | Jan 31, 2022 | , ,

In today’s Your Money Matters, Clint Lee and Ted Bauman review the stock market’s terrible start to 2022. But a bad start doesn’t always mean a bad finish — just ask the tortoise about his race with the hare.

A big question, though, is how to know when the market has reached the short-term bottom.

If you can spot that, you can grab the opportunity to ride it back up to whatever level it’s going to achieve later on.

Clint explains how you can identify that opportunity using easily accessible technical indicators … and why it’s so important to wait for confirmation of a rebound before jumping in.

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The Fed Kills the Momentum Trade

The Fed Kills the Momentum Trade

Posted by | Jan 28, 2022 | , ,

In June 2020, Barstool Sports founder and wannabe investor Dave Portnoy infamously said that “stocks only go up.” In 2022? Sorry Dave. In today’s video, Ted Bauman walks us through the consequences of the Fed’s recent hawkish turn. Even after big declines since the beginning of the year, there’s plenty of overvaluation in the market still. Ted reviews the history of stock performance in Fed tightening cycles, which is better than you might imagine. But there’s one big fear hovering over the market … what if the Fed is tightening into a downturn? That would be bad and not just for momentum stocks.

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A Very Mean Reversion

A Very Mean Reversion

Posted by | Jan 26, 2022 | , ,

Many people believe stock market prices are usually “correct. ”The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) says that, since everybody has access to the same information about a company’s performance, its stock price shouldn’t remain over- or underpriced for long. Try telling that to someone who bought a high momentum stock in late January last year.

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