Recent headlines have reported the strength of the economy. They say jobless claims are at a 49-year low.

That’s impressive. But the economy is even stronger than the headlines reveal.

The chart below shows the number of new jobless claims as a percentage of workers. It’s not just at a 49-year low. It’s actually at an all-time low.

U.S. jobless claims are even lower than the headlines reveal. But there is some bad news: There are too many people working.

Since 1969 — that’s 49 years ago — the population of the United States has increased more than 60%.

With new jobless claims at the same level they were at in 1969, this indicates today’s economy is much stronger than the economy of the 1960s.

But there is some bad news.

There are too many people working.

This means inflation will increase. And higher inflation will scare the Federal Reserve.

The Fed will overreact and stop the strong economy.

This will happen soon. The Fed will raise rates this week in a step toward stopping economic growth.

And when the Fed succeeds in stopping growth, stocks will crash.

In sports terminology, it’s getting late in the game. The end of the bull market is near.


Michael Carr, CMT

Editor, Peak Velocity Trader