Is it a stock market or a market of stocks? That philosophical question has a way of stirring up heated debates among analysts. The former resonates well with investors that prefer to buy and hold the broader market, like through an index fund. The latter believe that active stock picking can beat the indexing approach. The truth is that both approaches work, but only under the right conditions.
Predicting the future direction of the stock market is a damned if you do, damned if you don’t proposition. That’s why some analysts avoid it altogether. They say you can safely ignore the ups and downs of an index like the S&P 500.Others say that predicting market direction is a waste of energy. Just buy the right companies, and it won’t matter. Those answers wouldn’t satisfy most subscribers to my Bauman Letter. People constantly ask me what I think the market is going to do. They’re right to ask.
Now, if you’re an investor that uses exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to an index like the S&P 500, you’ve undoubtedly been conditioned to buy the dip. But before you do that this time, know this: Rising interest rates could lead to a risky new phase in the stock market. It’s one that will look nothing like the past decade … and will curtail recent stellar returns going forward … especially for buy-and-hold index investors. Here’s why and how rising interest rates come into play…
What if the Federal Reserve tried to give away money … and nobody wanted it?
That’s exactly what’s happening.
Last week, the stock market behaved as it always does in the run-up to a big Fed announcement.
Stocks traded sideways all week. Then on Friday, when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank wasn’t going to be changing anything soon, everyone started buying again.
This is a familiar routine. It’s based on the assumption that the Fed has the power to raise or lower interest rates by buying bonds out of the market in exchange for cash injections.
But what if that assumption is wrong?
Fed Chairman Powell gave the market exactly what it wanted. Interest rates barely budged. There’s no immediate talk of tapering. And everything shot up in response — growth, energy, cyclicals. But does that mean it’s time to pile into stocks again? Well, yes and no. As you’ll see in today’s Your Money Matters, Clint tells you which types of stocks you should be loading up on and which you should avoid. Plus, find out which part of the Fed announcement surprised him most. And more.
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