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COW ETF Is Up 13% in 6 Months as China Imports 81% More Lean Hogs

COW ETF Is Up 13% in 6 Months as China Imports 81% More Lean Hogs

If you made this trade, you made good money.

But there are larger gains coming…

Back in September 2018, we talked about how Hurricane Florence set up a big trade in hogs. If you took our advice, congratulations!

As you may know, Hurricane Florence caused widespread flooding and destruction in North Carolina. Eastern North Carolina has one of the largest concentrations of hog farms in the U.S.

We took a historical view of the potential from Hurricane Fran in 1996. That storm’s impact sent hog prices up 60% in six months.

We told you to buy shares of a livestock exchange-traded fund (ETF): the iPath Series B Bloomberg Livestock (NYSE: COW). Shares were around $47.75 when we published our essay.

Shares hit a recent high of $53.87 on March 21. That’s a gain of 13% in six months.

Lean Hog Prices Doubled Since 2018

You can see the chart of COW here:

That’s outstanding work … but I don’t think it’s over yet.

You see, lean hogs are just off their lowest price since 2002. The price of 100 pounds of lean hogs bottomed in August 2018 at $36.71.

Since then, the price doubled to $76.68 per 100 pounds. That price could easily go higher…

An Increase in Hog Imports to China Will Drive Prices Higher

Earlier this month, China announced that it may increase its pork imports from the U.S.

In 2018, the giant Asian nation imported 166,000 tons of pork from the U.S. However, in 2019, China plans to import 300,000 tons.

That’s an 81% increase.

It’s also more hog imports than China has ever bought from the U.S. In 2011, China imported about 250,000 tons of pork from the U.S.

Back then, hog prices averaged about $84 per 100 pounds. At peak prices, they’re over $100 per 100 pounds.

That’s what I expect to happen in 2019.

Chinese imports should drive the price of hogs 10% to 25% above the current price.

That will be great news to farmers in North Carolina trying to recover from hurricane damage. And it will be great for investors holding COW in their portfolio. The ETF holds about 40% of its value in hogs, so it will benefit from the run.

There’s still time to get into the iPath Bloomberg Livestock ETF (NYSE: COW). And if you already own it, hang on to it!

Your investment is about to get a rocket boost.

Good luck and good investing,

Matt Badiali

Editor, Real Wealth Strategist

 

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