Trade Alert: Time to Bet Against the Price of Crude Oil

We made some nice gains by betting on the rising price of crude oil.

But now is the time to make the opposite bet: The price of crude oil looks due for a decline.

The rise of benchmark WTI crude oil to $58-per-barrel was helped by the increasingly bullish sentiment for the oil industry. Naturally, rising prices can embolden investors who in turn help drive prices higher.

But when that sentiment reaches an extreme, the feedback loop terminates.

Crude oil speculators have reached an extreme with their bullish bets. At no time in the last 52 weeks have the large speculators net long position been as high as it was last week.

This suggests crude oil is capped at least until positioning in the futures market balances out.

The thing is: Rebalancing in the futures market tends to come with price adjustments. As you might expect, when the bulls give way to the bears, price gives way too. It’s what’s happened at relative bullish extremes all year. No reason it won’t happen again.

I’m looking for WTI to fall to $52-per-barrel initially. After that, depending on the nature of the decline, I might look to a secondary downside target of $49.

To make the most of the coming move, we can purchase shares of a triple-leveraged inverse ETN that’s designed to move up three times as fast as the price of crude oil moves down. It’s the VelocityShares 3x Inverse Crude ETN (DWTI).

If this idea makes sense for you, I recommend you place this order as soon as possible.

NOTE: This bet is directed at the underlying price of crude oil. While oil producers and energy names could follow the price of oil lower, I expect they’ll be more resilient … especially if risk appetite for the broad stock market stays healthy.

I suspect crude oil’s correction will eventually provide a nice buying opportunity for crude oil names.

Do right,

JR