With the first half behind us, it’s time to revisit the predictions I made at the end of 2020 and see what I got wrong and right.
- Starting the year, I thought the economy would come roaring back as Americans lined up to get vaccinated.
The fully vaccinated population is still below 50%. But the U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 6% in the first quarter.
Aside from the crazy growth when the shutdown ended in 2020, that’s the fastest economic growth since we hit 7.2% in 1984.
- I also thought the stimulus plan and pent-up demand for travel and recreation would send unemployment below 6% by June.
The June unemployment number squeaked in below my prediction at 5.9%. There were over 9 million job openings in May.
This is likely due to the economic strength outpacing American companies’ ability to hire fast enough.
- I said bitcoin would break to a new all-time high above $20,000 on its way to $50,000.
It went even higher, touching $64,000 before dropping back to $33,000 now.
But I still think Ethereum 2.0 is an even bigger story than bitcoin.
More Predictions From 2020
- I predicted that this economic snapback would cause investors to sell their safe U.S. Treasury bonds and move into stocks, saying the U.S. 10-year interest rate would finish the year above 2%.
At the start of the year, rates were sitting at 0.90%. When the economy started to reopen, they shot up to 1.75%.
Rates have since pulled back to 1.36% on fears of a new coronavirus wave.
- I also said the bears would “gnash their jowls about inflation, but rates are still historically low, and the stock market party continues.”
So far, so good. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has kept the “Jacuzzi-sized punch bowl” out, although the Fed is now discussing when it should end quantitative easing (QE).
- I wrote: “The S&P 500 Index hits 4,000 early next year, followed by a pullback, and then 4,500 by year end. Tech continues to lead the way.”
The major averages are all sitting near all-time highs. The S&P 500 is currently at 4,380, with big-cap tech in charge.
- I also thought that low interest rates, millennials moving from cities and a lack of housing supply would lead to one of the best years for real estate developers since 2006.
It’s been a great year for real estate developers … but a terrible year for people buying newly built homes.
- I thought investors would “awaken to the future role of cryptocurrencies as the base layer for our digital world, and Ethereum triples to $2,000.”
Ethereum is $2,100 now but traded as high as $4,400 in May.
- I said: “Driverless, self-driving car networks take off in Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Francisco.” There are a few pilots happening, but they haven’t gained mass acceptance (yet).
I thought a mania would happen in stocks that benefit from the driverless future. No mania (yet).
- I thought that Exxon and Chevron would be in trouble as money flows toward renewable energy. Oil staged a big bounce this year, and many energy names have followed suit.
The Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) is flat on the year, but I still think there’s upside ahead for renewables.
So, those were my bold predictions for 2021.
It’s been an eventful year so far, and there will certainly be some surprises for stocks and the crypto markets in the months ahead.
Fortunately, our experts at Smart Profits Daily are here to help you make the best investing decisions in the second half of 2021.
So, make sure you check your inbox every Monday through Saturday for our latest insights.
Editor, Strategic Fortunes