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Next-Generation Mobility’s Explosive Growth in 3 Stages

Next-Generation Mobility’s Explosive Growth in 3 Stages

The future of mobility is closer than you might think.

From logistics to commuting, transportation industries are rapidly changing as innovation moves forward and new societal norms are formed.

Next-generation mobility will require innovation in vehicles. This innovation will arrive in three stages, each presenting an opportunity for investors to make huge gains.

Stage 1: Electric Vehicles

The first stage of the transition to next-generation vehicles is the mass adoption of electric vehicles. The full electrification of the vehicle fleet will set the stage for implementation of future technology.

Improvements in battery technology and manufacturing processes are making inexpensive electric vehicles a reality.

At scale, electric vehicles are expected to be cheaper than gas-powered vehicles by 2025 and 2022 in the U.S. and China, respectively.

Electric vs. Gas Owner Cost US China Chart

(Source: Bloomberg.)

Once the cost advantage of electric vehicles becomes undeniable, electric vehicle adoption will reach a tipping point. From there, the size of the electric vehicle fleet will grow exponentially.

global electric vehicle fleet chart

(Source: Bloomberg.)

Stage 2: Partial Automation

The following stage of next-gen vehicles is the mass utilization of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS).

ADAS technologies enhance the driving experience by assisting drivers with driving and parking functions.

More sophisticated ADAS technologies are able to perform various levels of self-driving functions. There are currently 86 million vehicles with an ADAS capable of offering at least level 2 autonomy.

Level 2 autonomy is considered partial automation, in which the vehicle can steer, accelerate and brake on its own.

Advancement in sensors, software and processors will enable ADAS technology with at least level 2 autonomy to be scalable across the entire vehicle fleet.

By 2030, 551 million vehicles are expected to have at least level 2 autonomy. By 2040, this number is expected to reach 989 million.

To put this into perspective, this is larger than the entire global vehicle fleet in 2015, which was 950 million.

global fleet level 2 autonomy chart

(Source: Bloomberg.)

Stage 3: Robotaxis

The third stage of next-gen vehicles is the mass adoption of fully self-driving robotaxis. With full automation, these vehicles will be operational without the presence of a driver.

At this stage, the economics of driving will have changed forever.

For people currently living in urban areas, the cost of ownership per mile can be very expensive. Plus, driving may not be the fastest method of travel to a destination.

Robotaxis are the answer to these problems. They will greatly reduce the cost to travel.

For example, in Los Angeles, robotaxis are projected to cost only one-sixth of the current cost of a taxi and one-third of the current cost of an Uber.

Cost Per Mile Los Angeles Chart

(Sources: Lifewire and Ark Research.)

As futuristic as they seem, there are already over 1,400 robotaxis on the road. In the U.S., Google’s Waymo and General Motors’ Cruise have deployed self-driving taxi fleets to test the concept.

By 2030, there are expected to be 334,000 robotaxis on the road. By 2040, this number is expected to reach 21 million.

global robotaxi fleet size growth chart

(Source: Bloomberg.)

The Biggest Disruption Since the Automobile

The transition to next-generation vehicles is already underway. But the shift is providing investors the opportunity to make huge gains for decades to come.

And right now, electric vehicle and self-driving companies everywhere are going up in anticipation of the huge changes ahead.

In Ian King’s latest Market Insights video, he explains three reasons why the mobility market is ripe for disruption.

You can watch it by clicking on the image below.

(If you’d prefer to read a transcript instead, click here.)

Regards,

Autonomous delivery will change the dynamic of the food industry, as well as boost U.S. productivity and quality of life over the coming decade.

Steve Fernandez

Analyst, Automatic Fortunes

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