The average American male born a century ago could expect to live to 58.
The average American female had slightly better odds of seeing 60.
But a lot has changed over the past 100 years.
Source: Statista
Death from heart disease and cancer has been dramatically reduced by life-extending treatments and medications like bypass surgery and statins…
While the development of vaccines and antibiotics has further increased our life expectancy.
Even simple things we take for granted today like indoor plumbing helped reduce the spread of disease and increased our longevity.
But U.S. life expectancy peaked at 78.8 years in 2014.
And until recently, it’s been on a steady decline.
So where does that leave us now?
I’ve got good news and bad news…
Have We Reached Our Limit?
Let’s start with the bad news.
A new study published in the online research journal Nature Aging suggests that “unless the processes of biological aging can be markedly slowed, radical human life extension is implausible in this century.”
In other words, when it comes to aging it seems like we’ve reached our limit.
The scientists who performed the study looked at how death rates changed for people aged 65 and older in countries where people live the longest.
They found that from 1990 to 2019, death rates for older people dropped by about 30%.
If death rates continue to drop at this same speed for the next 30 years, it would only add about 2.5 years to how long the average person lives.
This goes against what other scientists predicted.
The most optimistic ones thought life expectancy would grow by 3 years every decade, or about 9 years total from 1990 to 2019.
Yet the real numbers show this isn’t happening.
The death rate for older people isn’t falling fast enough to suggest that people will live dramatically longer lives during this century.
And that’s because the big breakthroughs that helped people live longer — things like better sanitation, vaccines and medical care — have already happened.
According to the study: “Our analysis suggests that survival to age 100 is unlikely to exceed 15% for females and 5% for males.”
Which means Americans shouldn’t expect to see huge increases in how long people live during this century.
However, there is still hope for us all!
That’s because new technologies are helping us make exciting discoveries about how our bodies work, improving our understanding of how aging happens at a biological level.
This could lead to new ways to slow down the aging process itself.
Could Technology Extend Our Lives?
I’ve identified three of the most promising emerging trends in this area as we head into 2025.
The first is gene-editing technologies like CRISPR that are used to change genes and create better medicines.
The FDA recently approved the first CRISPR-based treatment called Casgevy to treat patients with sickle-cell disease. And many more treatments are expected to follow.
CRISPR can fix, turn off or change genes in cells, which could help treat cancer, inherited diseases, viral infections and more.
What makes CRISPR special is that it can work together with other treatments. For example, it can make cancer therapies called CAR-T cells work better and safer.
Scientists can also use CRISPR to find new targets for drugs.
Instead of just treating symptoms, these new treatments might actually cure some diseases by fixing the genes that cause them.
New technologies are also allowing us to come up with new ways to create and modify molecules.
This is especially important for making new medicines.
One exciting method is “molecular editing,” which lets chemists precisely change existing large molecules instead of building them from scratch.
It’s like editing a document rather than rewriting it completely.
This approach is more efficient and uses fewer harmful chemicals than traditional methods.
It gives scientists more options for creating new drug candidates and other useful compounds.
When combined with artificial intelligence tools that help plan chemical reactions, molecular editing could lead to many more chemical innovations in the coming years.
Finally, scientists are making big advances in studying individual cells using new technologies called single-cell analysis.
These tools can help detect diseases early, screen unborn babies for health issues and can be used to develop better medicines.
The latest breakthrough combines different types of cell analysis methods, called multi-omics.
This gives scientists a more complete picture of how cells work and helps them develop better treatments, especially for cancer.
An even newer approach called omniomics aims to combine all cell data to better understand diseases and create personalized treatments for each patient.
That’s the main goal for the future of health care: personalized medicine.
Here’s My Take
I mostly focus on cutting-edge technologies in the Daily Disruptor, but this newsletter is ultimately about investing.
The health care market is massive, and it’s growing at an incredible rate.
The market for single-cell analysis technologies alone was estimated at $4.34 billion in 2023, and that number could double by 2030.
But when it comes down to it, there’s no better investment you can make than an investment in your own health and well-being.
I’m optimistic that we’ll be able to extend our lifespan because we’ve already shown that we can do it with mice.
Right now there are more than 60 clinical trials testing life-extension therapies in humans.
With advances in AI technology, I believe it’s only a matter of time before some of these strategies pan out.
In the meantime, I believe we should pay more attention to improving our health span…
That’s the portion of our lives when we’re in good health.
Because what’s the benefit of living a longer life if it’s not a healthy one?
What can you do now to improve your odds of enjoying a healthier life?
The answer is surprisingly simple.
Eat well and get regular exercise. Walking is especially beneficial. Drink enough water. Get enough sleep.
I know sometimes it can be tough to put these things into practice, but they go a long way to help you live a happier, healthier and more productive life.
Regards,
Ian King
Chief Strategist, Banyan Hill Publishing
