Is This the End of Cheap Oil?

ISIS threatens to end cheap oil

There are those — such as Hollywood actor Ben Affleck — who insist that any negative commentary about Islam is racist.

“It’s gross and it’s racist. It’s like saying, ‘Oh, you shifty Jew,’” Affleck insisted during a heated debate about the Islamic State on a recent episode of Real Time with Bill Maher. Forget for a moment that religion isn’t race. What apologists like Affleck are saying is that we cannot hold the world’s billion or so Muslims accountable for the actions of a few who subscribe to “radical Islam.”

To which I say: “Ben, wake the hell up!”

They are at the very heart of what I call the “Oil Games,” and I am so concerned about the risk that ISIS now represents that my research team and I have put together a video presentation that I will send to you later this month. I want everyone to understand what’s really happening and why, and just how significant the risk is to your financial well-being.

And I want you to understand the opportunity that exists to protect your wealth and your lifestyle.

Affleck doesn’t get it. Hollywood doesn’t get. Liberals don’t get it.

They think radical Islam is a bastardization. They insist that calling out the ideology of a “few radicals” is unfair to the entire Muslim community. Many call for reform to purge Islam of these radicals.

What they fail to understand is that the adherents of radical Islam are not so radical, after all. Their radical views are actually based on the purest reading of the religion as laid down by the prophet Muhammad. Those who call for reformation of Islam to address these radical elements are missing the point.

“Radical Islam” is the reformation.

The Islamic State is reforming Islam by taking the religion back to its founding in the seventh century — when infidels and apostates and heretics were killed for their beliefs. And untold millions of conservative Islamists, though not necessarily condoning the ultra-violent ways of ISIS, nevertheless support the belief system that fuels the Islamic State. Indeed, the Saudi-owned Al-Hayat newspaper published an opinion poll last summer in which 92% of those surveyed believe that “ISIS conforms to the values of Islam and Islamic law.” The startling statistic led a Saudi commentator to warn that ISIS’ Saudi supporters are inside the Kingdom and “watching from the shadows.”

And that highlights one of the greatest risks to the global economy today.

Threat of a New Empire

ISIS has a singular agenda: To rebuild a caliphate — an Islamic empire — based on the religious principles of Muhammad’s era and which stretches from the Arabian Peninsula to Central Asia and on to Southern Europe and West Africa. In that pursuit, ISIS demands possession of Islam’s two holiest sites: Mecca and Medina, both intimately associated with Muhammad’s life.

Standing in the way of that: Saudi Arabia, the country in control of both cities.

ISIS has Saudi Arabia in its sights. ISIS leadership has said it “will annihilate Saudi Arabia” and has called for attacks from inside the Kingdom — and those are beginning. Just recently a suicide bomber attacked a Saudi mosque. More such attacks — bigger attacks — will come.

The ultimate threat to you and me — to the lifestyle Americans know as normal — is oil: ultimately, the end of cheap oil.

ISIS knows Saudi Arabia’s only source of income — the only source of power the Saudi royal family holds — is the country’s oil industry. ISIS wants to attack that industry. It wants to control that industry. Not just for the wealth it creates, but because it robs the Saudi government of the wealth it needs to placate a population that is not always friendly to the government. It will also allow ISIS to destabilize the world by crimping off a leading supply of oil and ensuring the end of cheap oil.

When this happens — and I am convinced it’s a “when,” not an “if” —the end of cheap oil means that oil prices will soar far beyond the $140 highs we saw with in 2008. That will flow through our lives in profound ways. Oil, after all, isn’t just the price of gas at the pump. It’s the cost of corn and bread and eggs. It’s the cost of makeup and tires and house paint. It flows through more 6,000 everyday items, meaning more than 6,000 potential points of pain as ISIS makes good on its threat to annihilate Saudi Arabia.

For that reason, the antidote to the risk we all face today is to own stocks that will respond positively to higher oil prices — oil drillers, oilfield-equipment suppliers, natural-gas companies and green-energy plays.

The End of Cheap Oil

This is a critical situation. ISIS has shown no mercy, just as the pure version of Islam it espouses shows no mercy to those who do not adhere strictly to Muhammad’s view of life.

A colleague made a great point when he said this whole situation reminds him of a scene in the movie Jaws:

Mayor Vaughn: I don’t think either of one you are familiar with our problems.

Hooper: I think that I am familiar with the fact that you are going to ignore this particular problem until it swims up and bites you on the ass!

He has a very good point. But there are those who are already setting themselves up for victory in the event the world I see unfolding comes to pass. More on that to come in two dispatches I will send you next week — and more on the way in which Saudi Arabia’s actions on November 27, 2014, assured us of the end of cheap oil, even if ISIS never gains control of a Saudi oilfield.

Until then, stay Sovereign…
Jeff Opdyke Sovereign Investor
Jeff D. Opdyke
Editor, Profit Seeker