“And so, tomorrow, if all of a sudden, I show up at a convention and everybody says, ‘We want somebody else,’ that’s the democratic process. It’s not going to happen.”

—Joe Biden, before Covid and his own party forced him to drop out on Sunday.

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July 25, 2024 – Empires rise, and empires fall. History is rife with their detritus.

Both rise and fall come complete with financial, economic and political cycles. An empire on the rise attracts capital, whether from taxing colonies or taking the wealth of conquered territories. Or simple enthusiasm for free markets and the blessings of capitalism.

Trouble is, an empire is not human. But like any human, “it” hardly knows when or whether it has lost its attractive qualities and when it’s time to “hang it up.”

Over time, empires get soft. They start to dole out the money faster than it comes in. From the Roman Empire’s “bread and circuses” to keep the masses in line to today’s “modern” welfare states, a tipping point occurs where more starts to go out than comes in.

The empire, built on confidence that it will last indefinitely, only belatedly attempts to correct the fact that it now spends more than it brings in. At some point, the currency is debased, whether by clipping gold and silver coins, or by issuing excessive amounts of debt.

My Empire of Debt co-author Bill Bonner explores this topic today… and how it applies to the United States as our debt-to-GDP ratio nears 130%, a level historically marking an unsustainable tipping point toward inexorable collapse.

The Grey Swan Investment Fraternity has been established to keep up this wide-angle view and mark important turning points along the way. Trends in economics, politics… history… that, however improbable, are entirely forecastable.

This week’s little kerfuffle with our sitting president and his presumed replacement for the 2024 election will likely be collected on the dustbin of history along with every other minor episode in this epic saga we just happen to be living through.  Enjoy ~~ Addison

CONTINUED BELOW…

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CONTINUED…

Manifest Debt
Bill Bonner, Bonner Private Research

In the news, the dots come in torrents.

But the patterns are unmistakable. It is the way the world works. Down… then up… then down again. From average to excellence… then, like a drop of water headed to the sewer, the exceptional thing is drawn to mediocrity.

The molecules, within the water, ask no questions. The caterpillar doesn’t choose to become a butterfly. And people adjust their attitudes and thoughts to play their roles in the great drama.

We are parts of the pattern…not masters of it.

A former Chinese ambassador to the US:

America was very different back then compared to now. In the 1980s, America was confident. It identified the Soviet Union as its main rival and boasted about “Star Wars”; it viewed Japan as an economic threat, attacking its financial and manufacturing sectors. By the 1990s, with the end of the Cold War, America became the only superpower, proudly promoting the so-called “Washington Consensus” and even declaring the “end of history.”

Later, things changed. America instigated several regional wars around the world, orchestrated several “color revolutions,” and caused chaos in many places. American-led financial capitalism triggered a global financial crisis. People worldwide, including many Chinese, gradually realized that America’s strategic focus is its global hegemony, not the welfare of all humanity, especially people in developing countries. The so-called “Pax Americana” does not necessarily benefit world peace, stability, and development; modernization does not equate to Westernization or Americanization. Their methods cannot navigate us to our goals, and their grand teachings often come with double standards in practice.

In recent years, many unexpected and perplexing events have occurred in America itself. People worldwide, including Americans, are re-evaluating the United States. Now, even Washington no longer believes in the old “Washington Consensus,” and the “end of history” theory has itself ended.

A few years ago, when I gave a speech at Harvard University, I posed a question: “What happened to the confident America?” No one answered me. In the summer of 2021, when I returned to China, I told Dr. Henry Kissinger and other Americans that the America I saw in 2021 seemed different from the one I arrived in back in 2013. They surprisingly agreed with me, making it feel like an entirely different world.

Americans appear to have lost their swagger. They are eager to ‘make America great again,’ but not by doing what made it great in the first place. Where they were once optimistic, confident and unafraid of the future… now, they see bogeymen everywhere.

It is unusual, exceptional, when a country becomes vastly more powerful than all others. It happens. But then, its own people help it to un-happen.

Jefferson sent ships to quiet the Barbary Coast, in the Mediterranean, very early in America’s march to full-fledged empire status. Afterward, the US quickly went back to minding its own business.

By the 1880s, the US had the world’s biggest economy; the temptation to hegemony was irresistible. It was our ‘manifest destiny,’ said our early homeland Caesars. And by the 20th century, the Caribbean was a ‘mare nostrum’ for the USA. The Wilson Administration used it to ferry US troops to anywhere the United Fruit Company or the US Department of State wanted to meddle.

America achieved its truly exceptional status after WWII… and went on to do what no nation before it ever had — gaining ‘full spectrum dominance’ over the whole planet. No sparrow could fall, anywhere on the planet, without setting off alarm bells at the CIA and countdown codes at the Pentagon. America’s warships ruled not just its own two coasts — where they might conceivably block an enemy attack — but coasts and inlets far from home where they had no special interest, no knowledge, nor any purpose.

Today there is apparently no business anywhere that is not America’s business. US fleets patrol the far reaches of the Atlantic and the Pacific… the Gulf of Aden… the coast of the Levant (where they apparently assist Israel in its slaughter of terrorist toddlers)… the Java Sea… the Red Sea… the Indian Ocean.

Naive or merely curious readers might wonder what all this surveillance, patrolling, and garrisoning costs. Closely related is the question… where does it lead?

We wrote a book about it, with Addison Wiggin, nearly twenty years ago. In Empire of Debt we suggested that “an empire is a rare thing… nature will tolerate it for a while, but sooner or later the imperial people must revert to becoming a normal race.”

How does nature go about ‘un-happening’ an empire? The dot patterns from history are clear enough. It encourages rivals to challenge, invade, and harass… and turns the imperial people themselves into morons. They spend too much… stretch too far… and line up behind incompetents and dumbbells.

Currently, the cost of the empire agenda is about $1.3 trillion per year. Looking back through the whole 21st century, so far, the price of being the Big Man on the Earth’s campus is about equal to the entire national debt.

Back in 2000, the US national debt was only $5 trillion. We controlled it. Now, at $35 trillion, it controls us. ~~ Bill Bonner, Bonner Private Research

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We will continue to explore the Empire of Debt theme with Bill, tomorrow.

In the meantime, please consider buying a copy of the third edition of Empire of Debt, now available in its fully updated post-pandemic glory. You can do so at any of your favorite online bookstores. I’ve listed five options below. For ease I’ll include them here, too:

Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed is now available at Amazon andB arnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites:Bookshop.org; Books-A-Million; or Target.

So it goes,


Addison Wiggin
Founder, The Wiggin Sessions

P.S. We’ve received a minor tsunami of responses to the Grey Swan this week. Some welcome interaction from old friends… a few suggestions on whom we should add to our list of interview subjects for Wiggin Sessions @ Grey Swan… and frankly a few forecasts for this election cycle we hadn’t thought of and exceed our own imagination. Keep the responses coming. Send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com

I read all of your responses. I’ve flagged the most provocative ones to consider for republishing. And I will do my best to answer each email as time permits. Thank you if you’ve taken the time to share your thoughts, ideas and suggestions.

When we do get the website launched, there will be a section for engaging directly with other members. We’re looking forward to that, too! Onward.

How did we get here?  For a complete review of the financial, economic, and political history of the United States from Demise of the Dollar through Financial Reckoning Day and on to Empire of Debt — all three books are available in their third post-pandemic editions.

Turn Your Images On

Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed is now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites:Bookshop.org; Books-A-Million; or Target.

Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: addison@greyswanfraternity.com