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Empires have a logic all their own.

After spending a few weeks in the UK, Grey Swan managing editor Andrew Packer, ponders the fate of the American version, below. Enjoy – Addison

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What Will the American Empire Leave Behind?

Gaze upon my works, ye mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains.”

– Percy Shelley, Ozymandius

 

One of the joys of travel is to stand in places where great moments have been made. I’ve had the privilege to visit more than a few.

From the serene and green battlefield at Gettysburg, to the storied halls of the  White House and Senate in the United States…

But nothing could compare to standing on what was once the edge of one of the world’s great empires thousands of years ago.

In what was once a lavish outpost of a once-great empire, a city that held thousands and marked control of the region now stands … a cow pasture.

Today, the United Kingdom is a post-empire.

But at one point, the southern half of the island of Great Britain was the far-flung frontier for another empire, the Romans.

Looking at the Roman Empire at its peak, spanning as far north as Britannia, to the gates of the Middle East, and even down into Africa, those living in the empire during its heyday would likely never believe that their empire would decline and fall.

But not only has it declined and fell … very little remains today. A few Roman-built roads and aqueducts are still in use. But years, decades, and centuries of decay take their toll.

And what’s left has been buried, whether by sands, shifting rivers, or new layers of soil created by earthworms and added to by winds.

Consider the Roman town of Wroxeter. At one point the second-largest Roman city in England, today, it’s little more than ruins, miles from the nearest modern town.

Those ruins were buried for so long that they were rediscovered in the mid-19th century by local farmers, finally tilling the fields in the area for the first time in centuries.

The bathhouse, the center of life in a Roman town, was more than a place for hygiene. It was the local gym and library. And where you would go to relax outside the home and socialize.

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British bureaucracy is now so deficient that those who wish to try and uncover new historical finds like Wroxeter may need about 30 years to undertake the paperwork and get approval.

And it was a stroke of incredible luck to be in Wroxeter this July. That’s because a team of student archaeologists were allowed to dig on the site for the first time in three  decades.

The location was on the other side of the (also now historic) 19th-century model farm:

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Five days into the dig, there were plenty of samples from the 19th century – nails, horseshoes, chains, and the like.

But that was also going just a few feet down, about as far as farming technology could till the soil at the time.

Further down, there was already evidence of Roman pottery and, especially helpful for dating purposes, coinage.

The work is slow-going. That’s partly because graduate students are getting some real hands-on practice. But also because there’s no heavy equipment at use. It’s all being done by hand.

The site is a potential location for a Roman temple. Others have been found in the area. And ground radar technology indicates this is the best spot.

Whether there’s a big find or not, thousands of years of human settlement in one rural and hilly spot in central England are coming to light. And we may add some small addition to human knowledge.

Lessons Learned So Far

Seeing the Roman ruins makes one think that an empire doesn’t collapse overnight. But it does collapse. And it likely starts at the fringe. Those at the fringe wise up by pulling back to the center, or they adapt to a new empire.

And cities may not turn to ruins overnight. But left unkept, they will. Today’s modern cities and infrastructure could become unrecognizable within a few decades as nature takes back and grows over.

With Empires historically lasting about 250 years, the Roman Empire was an exceptional one. Its life was also extended, thanks to its split over time.

Plus, they never made it as far as Afghanistan, a country that’s been nicknamed “the graveyard of empires.”

The United States of America just turned 246. And we can see the signs of decay in everything from our civic life to our inner cities.

A society on the way up builds beautiful cities with splendid architecture and infrastructure. A society in decay throws up whatever is cheapest and will last for now.

This month, as archaeologists dig for a Roman temple in the middle of a hill in rural England, miles from any modern town, the Mirage Casino on the Las Vegas Strip is being torn down.

It first opened in November 1989, after two years of construction, and costing a then-record $630 million.

Adjusted for inflation, that’s about $1.6 billion today. Will someone spend $1.6 billion today for a casino that will only be around for 35 years? Check back with me in 2059.

The Roman Empire was nearing its peak around 2,000 years ago when it was testing its power in Britain.

One can’t help but wonder what will be left of America 2,000 years from now, in 4024.

Perhaps it’s too far in the future to contemplate. For the society that invented drive-thru and the microwave dinner, along with thousands of other time-saving gadgets and ideas, it does boggle the mind to slow down and think about it.

America’s empire has been more overt. It didn’t set out to invade any foreign countries, at least at first.

That came later, after the end of World War II when the country wasn’t just the world’s biggest power, but had the ability to project force just about anywhere in the world – from a platoon of soldiers to a nuclear arsenal.

The growth of any empire is much like the start of an economic boom. People feel good about it. Those who are involved become wealthier. But it’s hard to think about what underpins that boom — and what a bust could look like.

It would be amazing to see what America – and the rest of the world looks like 100 years from now, much less 500, 1,000, or 2,000 years down the line.

Any prediction that far forward is likely to be wrong – except that the world will likely look vastly different from today’s social order.

In our lifetime, the real story is protecting yourself from the downside of a collapsing empire.

It may mean owning assets that have real-world value to all people. And reducing exposure to that empire’s currency, as the temptation to inflate it will only lead to further destruction.

But life doesn’t have to be dour during a collapse. There’s still time to learn new skills, and study subjects such as economics, history, and even, if you wish, dabble in archeology. ~ Andrew Packer, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

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A quick program note: Following a Wiggin Session @ Grey Swan recording with our buddy John Rubino today, I’ll be boarding a plane in Baltimore destined for Las Vegas. Tomorrow night, my daughter Liz and I will be catching the Dead Forever show at the Sphere.

In the meantime, this laptop will remain steadfastly in its place on my desk. Tomorrow and Friday, the missive will be in Andrew’s capable hands. A tout!

So it goes,


Addison Wiggin
Founder, The Wiggin Sessions

P.S.:  How did we get here?  For a complete review of the financial, economic, and political history of the United States from Demise of the Dollar through Financial Reckoning Day and on to Empire of Debt — all three books are available in their third post-pandemic editions.

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Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed is now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites:Bookshop.org; Books-A-Million; or Target.

Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: addison@greyswanfraternity.com