“Any fool can start a war, and once he’s done so, even the wisest of men are helpless to stop it – especially if it’s a nuclear war.”

–Nikita Kruschev

August 15, 2024 — Our objective with the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity project is simple… but complex. 

As such, I have a unique request for you today. 

Every day, we try to connect the dots – economic, financial, political… geopolitical. Our goal is ultimately to put together sound investment advice for you and ourselves. 

We do get distracted. It’s easy to. There’s a lot going on in the world. 

Over the past week, since having recorded our Wiggin Session with J0hn Robb, we’ve been preoccupied with an escalation in violence in the Ukraine and a wider war in the Middle East. 

Why? We can feel the Grey Swan event brewing. By definition, it’ll be a low-probability, high-risk event. Right now, the probability is rising. 

Here are three dots we were trying to connect today:

 

Dot #1: The Demise of the Dollar. 

Today is August 15, 1971. It’s 53 years to the day that Tricky Dick Nixon dismantled the Bretton Woods Exchange rate system. 

In his address to the nation, the pertinent clip of which we’ve included here, Richard Milhouse Nixon lied… twice.  

“The strength of a nation’s currency is based on that nation’s currency,” the president began. But then proceeded to announce he’d instructed the Secretary of the Treasury to protect the dollar against speculators… by closing the gold window. 

Truth is, it wasn’t speculators. 

Under the provisions of the Bretton Woods accord, foreign holders of U.S. dollars could redeem them for gold held metaphorically in “Fort Knox.” 

Leading up to 1971, the U.S. government had been fighting a hot war in Southeast Asia, a cold war against the Soviet Union globally…  and trying to wage a confusing social war on poverty and drugs, domestically.  

Government spending leading up to August 15, 1971 was skyrocketing… foreign holders of U.S. dollars threatened to deplete the U.S. gold supply… so Nixon “closed the gold window.”  (Source: Empire of Debt.)

The ongoing wars were too damn expensive. Foreign governments holding U.S. dollars in reserve, most notably the French, were suspicious… wanted out… and were rapidly depleting the share of the world’s gold reserves the United States had amassed during World War II.

Nixon chose to “suspend the convertibility of dollars to gold.”

Here come the lies. 

In the televised address, Nixon announced he’d instructed the Treasury Secretary to “defend the dollar against the speculators.” Ha! 

The next claim Nixon made, history itself would prove to be a lie. The actions he said would “stabilize the dollar.” Ha, Ha! 

“If you’re an American and you are buying American goods,” you can hear him say yourself, “your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as it is today.” Ha, Ha, Ha!

Since August 15, 1971 the world has been flooded with US dollars. An increase in money supply of this magnitude cheapens each dollar… economists call that “inflation”… you might say “everything is too darn expensive!” (Source: Empire of Debt)

Since 1971, the United States has added trillions to the world’s supply of dollars and credit. 

During this same period of time, only about 58,000 metric tons of gold have been brought from the ground. Sooner or later those dollars will be marked against an unforgiving market, globally. 

Of course, that hasn’t happened… yet. 

Investors are tempted to look out their windows, see the sun shining, and think the dollar will last forever. They have no interest in the financial crimes of the Disco Age. (Source: Empire of Debt) 

 

Dot #2. The Forever Wars.

Ukraine has made a major offensive into Kursk, taking Russian territory for the first time in this two-plus-year-old conflict. 

That offensive would not be possible without the $61 billion the U.S. has donated to Vlodamir Zollenskiy in 2024 alone. 

In our guest essay, James Carden over at The American Conservative asks “What is the point of this campaign, if not just to prolong the war?”

To that, we might add, distract the population during a widening conflict in the Middle East… during an election year!

Trouble is, danger lies ahead. You can feel it. 

While studying this particular bit of military adventurism in Eastern Europe this morning, we received an alarmed e-mail from our publisher, Joe Schriefer:

 

Addison, 

See here. 

This… is terrifying. 

Most people in the West are too ignorant to understand the real ramifications of this…

The only reason Ukraine hasn’t been nuked is because of Putin.

If he’s ousted from power… watch out. 

If he’s ousted… Ukraine’s nuked before election day. 

Then, think of what that’ll do to influence the election… 

If we hit nuclear war… will people view Kamala with enough moxie to act? Or… will Putin’s outing… and a hard liner’s entrance… and the use of a “strategic nuke” within Ukraine, by Russia… push Trump back into the pole position for 2024?

The West should do everything it can behind the scenes to keep Putin in place.

If not… watch out world. 

Not nearly enough people are connecting the dots here. 

–Joe

 

Dot #3. World War III.

In our recent interview, John Robb shares Joe’s concern. But then ups the ante. 

Robb says a bigger concern is China watching very closely to what is happening in the Ukraine-Russia conflict… and Israel’s geopolitical chess match versus Iran. 

There will come a point, Robb maintains, when China sees diminishing returns for “waiting” to reclaim what they believe is their sovereign territory: Taiwan. 

The biggest threat in that Grey Swan scenario is simple. China’s capacity for building drones and other weapons currently dwarves the U.S. who is otherwise occupied depleting stockpiles halfway around the world. 

The U.S. does not currently have the productive capacity to counter Russian tactical nukes, help Israel wage war against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran… and fight a drone war with China in the South China Sea. 

You may have received an e-mail from us this morning. We’ve released a new report on Russia, Iran and China getting together with the other BRICS nations in Kazan, Russia on October 22, 2024. 

Top on the agenda list is the development of an alternative BRICS currency, we’ve labeled BRICS Bucks for ease of use. 

The meeting will be hosted by Putin himself. He’s got a lot riding on the BRICS summit, not least of which is his own hold on power in Russia. 

The dots are aligning … the outcome is uncertain … but the tension is rising and the probability of a Grey Swan event just feels imminent. Don’t you think?

With those dots on the table, you’ll find more on our unique request for help, below. Enjoy ~~ Addison

The Kursk Offensive and the Risk of a Wider War 

James Carden, The American Conservative

As the Kursk offensive heads into its second week, Ukrainian forces now claim to control nearly 30 Russian villages comprising 1,000 square miles of Russian territory. 

In a meeting with security advisers at his residence in Novo-Ogaryovo on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin directed his ire at Ukraine’s sponsors, claiming, “The West is fighting us with the hands of the Ukrainians.” 

The Kursk offensive marks a significant escalation in the two-and-a-half-year-long conflict. So, what are some of the broader implications of the Kursk offensive? A few observations:

# 1: The Kursk offensive highlights, among other things, the inherent risk of what I would call “non-allied allyship.” Washington has no treaty of alliance with Ukraine, yet the Biden administration persists in acting as though Ukraine is not just a treaty ally — it acts as though Ukraine’s survival in the form it took for three short decades (1992–2022) is essential to the national security of the United States. Washington’s granting of non-allied allyship to Ukraine has led Kiev to act in ways that are detrimental to its own survival — including through Kiev’s refusal to implement agreed-upon provisions of the Minsk Accords, which, if implemented, would probably have demonstrated to the Russians that waging a war of choice was unnecessary.

# 2: The Kursk offensive also shows, once again, that the idea that “if the Russians are not stopped in Ukraine they will go on to conquer Eastern Europe” is patently absurd. Russia could not conquer Kiev in 2022 and has been fighting a costly war of attrition even since. 

# 3: Russia remains, however, the world’s leading tactical nuclear power, and as such Ukraine’s raid on Kursk puts it and its military and financial backers, including the US and NATO member states, at risk for retaliation.

#4: Despite the success of the incursion and the loss of prestige suffered by Russia, it is important to remember that, on balance, Ukraine is losing the war. According to a new report in the Financial Times, “The amount of territory captured by Russian troops since early May is nearly double that which Ukraine’s military won back at heavy cost in terms of lives and military materiel with its summer offensive a year ago.”

#5: The decision by President Volodomyr Zelensky to bring the war to Russia—while no doubt viscerally satisfying to Ukraine and its many supporters here in Washington—will also demonstrate to Moscow that it has no one with whom to negotiate in Kiev and that the decapitation of the Ukrainian military and political leadership is a necessary precondition to achieving their ultimate war aim, namely, Ukrainian neutrality. Kursk is surely a morale boost to Ukraine and an embarrassment for Russia. It will also likely prolong the war. 

#6: The incursion into Russia shows once again that President Joe Biden and his national security adviser Jake Sullivan, far from being too cautious—as a number of high profile neocons have alleged— are, instead, facilitating Kiev’s journey up the escalatory ladder. It is a journey to an unknown destination. 

#7: Ukraine would not have been able to pull the offensive off without the approval and material support from Washington. As such, the U.S. and Europe are seen as complicit in this highly symbolic attack on Kursk, which is, after all, the site of the largest tank battle in history. The 1943 battle against the Nazis cost the Russians an estimated 800,000 casualties. The conclusion now being drawn in Moscow as they once again face German tanks on their territory is not difficult to surmise. 

In the end, the administration has not been honest about what is actually at stake in Ukraine. Now would be an opportune time for the president or the current vice president to articulate, and without recourse to received ideas such as those about defending “democracy,” why Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the matter of who governs a handful of Eastern Ukrainian provinces is worth risking a war with Russia. 

If Joe Biden and Kamala Harris do believe it is, they ought to explain why—perhaps during prime time at next week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago. ~ James Carden, The American Conservative

 

So it goes, 

Addison Wiggin,

Founder, Grey Swan

 

And to our “unique” request: Behind the scenes we’ve been studying what we expect will be an “open source” explosion of AI development and wealth creation. 

We, of course, want to take part in the wealth creation aspect and will be providing guidance to our paid Grey Swan Investment Fraternity members in this month’s investment bulletin.

But having a brain full of “open source” strategies, we got the idea while connecting the dots this morning. Why not “open source” Grey Swan event scenarios? 

Why not?

We know you’re interested in the same historic, economic and political themes as we are, otherwise you wouldn’t have read this far. 

So, my request is simple. Just drop me a line … with any thoughts you have to the following topics:

  • What are we missing? What sources do you recommend for our research?
  • What are your thoughts on the 50th anniversary of Tricky Dick’s disco age crime? 
  • Is there a legit connection between the events of August 15, 1971 and our most recent bout with historic levels of price inflation? 
  • What do the forever wars have to do with the price of your home… how much you pay in tuition or healthcare… the cost of raising your family and planning for your future?
  • What are your thoughts about “grey swan events” in general?

These questions are all meant to get your own juices flowing. Think about ‘em… send us your own ideas. 

But please, insightful responses only… your chance to contribute to the Fraternity. Send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com