Hyzon’s Whale Of A Problem & Maine Does Oil On Porpoise
Friday Feedback: The “Call Me Ishmael” Edition
Welcome to Friday Feedback, Great Ones!
Once again, we’re diving into the Great Stuff mailbag to answer your burning stock market questions! Along the way, we’ll also address a couple of your more interesting rants. I love that y’all always have something to say, no matter the topic.
If you want to participate next week, just drop us a line at GreatStuffToday@BanyanHill.com, and we’ll do the rest.
We’ve got a lot of ground to cover, so, without further ado, let’s get to the most-asked question of the past week:
What are your thoughts on Hyzon Motors … seems the shorts are after them?
— John H.
What do you think about the short attack on Hyzon? — Stephen K.
Dear Mr. Hydrogen:
You’re killing me! I’ve fallen, and I’m not sure if I can get up!
Hyzon is down 43% in my portfolio. Blue orcas are circling. Is this the vehicle version of The Old Man and the Sea? (Do I see myself in the fish?)
Aaaaaagghh. Give me reason to believe. I’m not sure I can “take advantage and buy on the dip” as every freekin “expert” always says.
If your columns weren’t so fun to read, I’d have never gotten into this mess. How’s that for a conditional compliment?!
Yours in pain and suffering… — Tim P.
Thanks to everyone who wrote in on Hyzon Motors (Nasdaq: HYZN)! There are too many Great Ones to list out here, but a special shout-out to Randy M. — dude, you wrote me a book that deserves its own newsletter … and I hope I can set your fears at ease somewhat.
First off, let me reassure you that all the research in my original Hyzon recommendation back in July still holds true.
Second, let’s address a couple things before we get to the real problem. Hyzon is a pre-revenue company. It makes hydrogen fuel cell powertrains (i.e., engines) in cooperation with commercial vehicle manufacturers. It specializes in buses, semitrucks, heavy-duty transportation trucks and various other large vehicles.
Hyzon is headquartered in Rochester, New York. It’s not a Chinese company, though it was spun off from Horizon, which was a Chinese company. Hyzon is Horizon’s former Heavy Vehicle Business Unit and was responsible for developing fuel cell systems and the delivery of about 500 fuel cell-powered commercial vehicles during 2019 and 2020.
Big Blue Moby Dick
Now, the fad among short selling hedge funds on Wall Street right now is to target SPACs — especially alternative energy SPACs.
Hindenburg Research did it with Lordstown Motors, and Citron did the same with Nikola.
Both pretty much nailed the problems facing each company … but that isn’t par for the course for either short seller.
Citron also went after Nio, Tesla and a wealth of other rather successful companies with drastically different results.
But Blue Orca, the short selling hedge fund that just went after Hyzon, isn’t as savvy as either Hindenburg or Citron. I’ve already discovered several factual inaccuracies in Blue Orca’s complaints. And if I can do it, Hyzon is gonna shred this short selling note when the company finally fires back with both barrels.
Here are Blue Orca’s biggest complaints:
1. Shanghai HongYun Automotive, Hyzon’s largest customer with an order for more than 500 trucks, is fake.
2. Hyzon’s 1,500-truck order from Hiringa Energy isn’t really an order.
3. Hyzon inflated its revenue by including Coca-Cola, Heineken and IKEA as “customers” early in 2021 but removed those companies from future financial disclosures.
4. Blue Orca alleges that Hyzon’s projected gross margin of 32% is unrealistic because it’s above the industry average — and it’s 10 points higher than Tesla’s.
5. Two of Hyzon’s chief technology officers quit.
There are other nitpicky things that Blue Orca touted, but these are the biggest issues that have investors in a tizzy.
Thar She Blows!
Now, let’s harpoon this whale and debunk Blue Orca’s “research” point by point, in that order, shall we?
1. I agree that Shanghai HongYun Automotive is weird. It was just set up months ago, and it’s a Chinese company. Both are potential red flags … but then, any dealings with China can be red flags right now.
What’s more, the HongYun Automotive deal was a memorandum of understanding (MoU) — not an official order. In fact, most of Hyzon’s deals are MoUs. If Blue Orca is worried about one MoU, why didn’t it target the rest?
This reeks of Chinese fear to me, which is understandable, but that by itself is a silly reason to short HYZN stock.
2. If the Hiringa order is fake, why does Hyzon’s February investor presentation have the contracted delivery of 20 vehicles to Hiringa listed? Remember, that’s contracted delivery, not an MoU. In other words, Hiringa has officially signed on to buy these vehicles. Blue Orca needs to check its sources on this point.
3. Again, Blue Orca is mistaken, and this one is just downright wrong. If you go back and check Hyzon’s February investor presentation, you’ll see it only said it was in advanced talks with Coca-Cola, IKEA and Heineken for orders … not that it had standing orders already. Because of this, these advanced talks weren’t included in Hyzon’s revenue projections.
So, again, Blue Orca was dead wrong here. There weren’t any official orders from these companies, so they weren’t included in revenue projections. Period.
4. Hyzon doesn’t make electric vehicles (EVs). It doesn’t make any vehicles. It makes hydrogen fuel cell powertrains for companies that do make vehicles. In other words, you can’t compare Hyzon to regular EV makers.
Think of all the stuff Tesla needs to make a full, roadworthy vehicle — now subtract about 75% of that, and that’s what Hyzon has as overhead. Of course your margins will be better if you don’t have to make the full EV! You don’t have all the extra overhead it takes to make a full car. Seriously, this is Economics 101, Blue Orca.
5. This one is just shameless. Blue Orca went after Hyzon retirees here. Specifically, co-founder and Chief Technology Officer Gary Robb. He didn’t step down abruptly — he freaking retired. He got a nice retirement package too, but after helping take Hyzon from a mere division of Horizon to a full-fledged public company, I think he deserves some compensation.
What’s more, Robb was replaced with a 17-year Ford Motors veteran. I don’t wanna throw shade on Robb — Blue Orca has already done that enough — but this feels like a step up for Hyzon.
So, there you have it. Blue Orca is full of it. But then, it’s important to remember that Blue Orca’s whole schtick here is to make money when HYZN stock falls.
Blue Orca doesn’t have to be right on every point. It just has to make HYZN stock fall. Mission accomplished.
And I’ll throw this little gem in for good measure … just in case you’re still wavering. At the end of the second quarter, Hyzon Motors had $517 million in cash on hand.
The company only burns through about $10 million a quarter.
At that burn rate, Hyzon has more than enough cash on hand to sustain operations by itself for the next several quarters.
It has cash. It has tech in vehicles on the road. It has customers. Hyzon is no Nikola or Lordstown. It’s the real deal. We’re still in HYZN stock for the long haul. I know it’s painful, but you will be rewarded if you hold strong.
And now … I think I’m gonna wash my hands and go eat some seafood.
Thanks for writing in, everyone!
Editor’s Note: A $171 Billion Industry Is Battling For This Strange Material
As EVs take over roadways all across America … they will rely on this material for future success.
Picking up shares of this one company today could be the best investment decision you make in your entire life.
Oh, it’s a regular romp ‘round the madhouse in the inbox this week. We saved the cream of the crop for you because, well, that’s kinda the point of Feedback Fridays. Or was it Friday Feedback?
Anyway, if any of today’s rants get you ravin’, ragin’ or simply complainin’, we want to hear it all. Sound off for next week’s mailbag over at GreatStuffToday@BanyanHill.com.
Up Here In The Dark Places
First of all, Mongo love “Sheriff Bart” Great Stuff! No, they will never do a remake, and they would never make it now.
Times change. But what doesn’t change any time soon is the millions of American homes that depend on oil (like me) for heat. Here in Maine, while they talk of solar farms, did anyone notice that summer ends on July 4, and there is no direct sunlight until the following June 30? Not an option. Natural gas? Ever hear of granite ledge? Makes it darn near impossible to run gas lines underground.
Electric heat pumps are expensive to install for the average homeowner (even with a whopping $750 rebate!), and geothermal is really out of most folk’s range. Electric heat? Not at these rising costs per kW hour — thank you! Besides, we need that power in the grid for the Teslas and the Ford Lightnings (this is pickup country, after all). Wood? One word — environmentalists. Nuclear power to generate electricity? Same word again.
Sorry, but we dinosaurs up here in the Northeast are going to be dependent upon our ancestors for some time to come. Which will leave us beholden to $100+/barrel oil or whatever price the OPEC robber barons are going to charge us. Thank goodness for LL Bean flannel (made in China/Vietnam/India/Sri Lanka/Malaysia)! — Rick
Ahoy, Rick! You have entered our obligatory “weaning off oil” free space for Friday Feedback.
Now, you have yourself a few assumptions in your email — and a few things you’re dead on the money with. Obviously, I have to start with the negatives — namely, thinking that solar isn’t viable in the far Northeast.
If Germany can make solar work, Maine can! There are colder, less temperate and sunshiney climates that still utilize solar — just ask Oregon and Washington.
Might I interest you in some wind power or tidal power in this troubling time? I think that’d work up in Maine … if you tried.
Anyway, my point is that Maine doesn’t need to rely solely on oil for power. Maine chooses to.
OPEC, on the other hand, is making a play on oil because it has to. That play isn’t necessarily wrong … it just has a limited lifespan, much like oil.
You know I can’t help but add: Maine would also be a great spot for hydrogen, which can be generated by solar, wind, geothermal, tidal or any other form of green power.
Heck, even nuclear energy would be a good fit for Maine (I already hear y’all starting a fuss in the inbox, stop it). Nuclear is one of the best options for power generation with very little environmental fallout … if and only if those plants are run correctly and not just cheaply for the dirty profit.
And energy companies wouldn’t do that, right?
My point (believe it or not, I did have one) is that oil is such a great way to physically store energy — if you ignore the environmental side effects — that we’ll need multiple green energy sources to wean ourselves off it.
We’ve been using oil for so long that most people just want a plug-and-play replacement for oil, but right now, that ain’t happening. I’m rambling now, but we will carry on the energy storage convo tomorrow.
But until then, if digging into energy storage is your idea of a fun Friday night (I don’t judge), well consider yourself booked up for the next few hours. Click here for more.
Subject: RETIREMENT CLAIM
Oh, right. The money. The money for Clint. The money chosen especially to give to Clint. Clint’s money. That money?
Yes! That money!
I have no idea. Did you send me money? How’d you find my Venmo … or mailbox? Are you trying to pay for Great Stuff? ‘Cause we were born free and always will be.
I’m just playing with you, Clint, if you did send money out into the virtual void of the internet (or to Banyan Hill) and you’re wondering what’s up, you should reach out to our friends at Banyan Hill right here.
And Now, A Poem
Why is the market like a box of chocolate?
How to make the U.S. even Greaterer
Zuckerberg must die, Put a sharp stick in his eye.
Now for something different, Batteries not included
4000 bc (approx..) VEDIC TEXT
1st written description and design for batteries
0 a.d. + or – 250
BAGDAD BATTERIE. 1st functioning batterie found.
Both great civilizations, both destroyed civilizations.
I guess they realized it was a bad idea then as now. (lol)
Now I could go all Bill Nye on ya, but that’s all I gotta say about that.
And remember; I don’t judge…………………………I just report the findings.
LAST RANT………………..Corn= We are the Mayans
— Dave S.
Thanks for the read, Dave. We got a regular Bukowski over here … or do you write for Ancient Aliens? Either way, hit us up again, I guess?
You, too, should reach out to us for next week’s edition of Friday Feedback. Write to GreatStuffToday@BanyanHill.com whenever the market muse calls to you!
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Until next time, stay Great!
Editor, Great Stuff