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Tiffany D’Abate
Total Wealth Insider

Updates

Passing the Torch and Next Steps for Our Portfolio

I want to start by thanking you for being a part of Total Wealth Insider — whether you’re a longtime reader or you’ve recently joined the family.

Your emails and feedback over the past three years have helped shape this service, turning it into what it is today. So a true thank you for all your support.

In today’s last update, my friend and colleague Charles Mizrahi joins me to discuss the transition as we roll Total Wealth Insider into Charles’ Alpha Investor Report — which I think you’re going to enjoy.

You’ll find Charles’ approach to stock picking very similar to my own.

After the interview, I give you a comprehensive overview of the portfolio — and tell you exactly what to do with our positions. So, be sure to read on.

But first, here’s my chat with Charles:

Turn Your Images On

(Click here to view the webinar.)

Now let’s turn to your trades…

Here’s What’s Happening to Your Portfolio

Regarding the Total Wealth Insider portfolio, it’s been a great ride — and there are many profit opportunities still ahead.

Including all positions current and past, we had an average gain of 36% and an average loss of 23%. We finished with an average gain of a little over 8% per recommendation.

I’m proud of that.

Our goal has always been to keep the newsletter focused on value stocks, out-of-favor companies, turnarounds and stable dividend reinvestment companies. By design, the newsletter did not focus on chasing tech and biotech stocks.

If you look at the S&P 500, and take out four stocks — Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google — the return of the other 496 stocks is roughly 5%. That’s almost half the performance of the newsletter.

That said, now we have to wind down the portfolio.

Your new guru, Charles Mizrahi, will continue to follow these three companies for you:

Clarivate PLC (NYSE: CCC) was added to the model portfolio nearly a year ago, and has gained nearly 60%. The stock had a great run last week when it announced second-quarter results, beating analysts’ estimates by $0.04 a share.

AeroVironment (Nasdaq: AVAV) has also had a nice run, rising more than 30% since I added the stock last September.

Broadridge Financial Solutions (NYSE: BR) was a stock I put in the Better Than Bitcoin special report portfolio in 2018. Since then, it’s gained 26%. Meanwhile, Charles added Broadridge to his Alpha portfolio earlier this year. Another example of our similar stock-picking methods.

I’m confident all three companies will continue to do well, and you can continue to view them here.

Your Portfolio Review

For the rest of the portfolio, since the publication of the newsletter is ceasing, I’m suggesting selling your remaining positions.

You can certainly choose to keep holding these stocks. All of them were recommended by me because they are real companies with real businesses. The positions that are in the green should continue to do well or hold their own, through bull and bear markets.

For those positions that are underwater, they either reflect lingering fears over the coronavirus, which will pass eventually — or the businesses temporarily aren’t considered as valuable by investors.

That’s typical of a raging bull market like this one. In a bear market, Wall Street prefers buying undervalued, stable assets. Everything moves in cycles.

For those who choose to hold on and self-manage these position, I suggest following our tried-and-true 25% trailing stop-loss strategy. I think there are many further gains ahead, and I give updates on the positions below.

For those who are interested in selling some or all of the other positions as we come to a close — here are the official instructions:

Actions to take:

Sell BioTelemetry (Nasdaq: BEAT): The stock remains marginally in the red since I recommended it in June, but I continue to be impressed by the company’s strategy and stable growth.

The stock shot up last week when BioTelemetry acquired On.Demand, a remote patient monitoring and health-coaching data owned by Centene Corp.

Right now, investors are reluctant to buy back into the stock, despite the company’s long-term profitability and cash-rich business model. They fear a resurgence of COVID-19, which depresses demand for BioTelemetry’s services.

Sell Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB): We’re wrapping this one up with a 30% gain, not including dividends.

As you already know, this stock has gone from “most hated on Wall Street” when I recommended it in 2018 — to the perfect “stay at home” stock during the worst of the COVID-19 crisis.

Remember that Campbell these days is more of a salty snack company. Soups are secondary. With that in mind, the company has plenty of future gains in it, not to mention a solid 2.7% dividend.

Sell CVS Health (NYSE: CVS): This stock finishes with a gain of 25%. The shares were up as much as 40% prior to the coronavirus situation, and I believe will rise to those levels and beyond in the future.

With a 3% dividend yield, and massive investments in its internet pharmacy and e-commerce operations to keep Amazon at bay, the stock is well-positioned for the future.

Sell Five Below (Nasdaq: FIVE): The stock remains underwater in the portfolio by roughly 9%.

The retailer’s share price hasn’t come back as quickly from the COVID-19 panic as some, but just give it time, in my opinion. The company generates lots of cash and profits and continues to add a few dozen stores a year.

Five Below’s store format was a proven hit before the stock was dinged first by the U.S.-China trade war, then the coronavirus shutdown and will continue to be a hit in the future.

Sell Floor & Decor (Nasdaq: FND): The home improvement chain’s shares more than doubled off the stock market’s panic lows in March, and now have a gain of nearly 40% as we wrap up the model portfolio.

Congrats to you if you bought even more at the March lows as I suggested at the time. The retailer will remain in growth mode in the U.S. for years to come, and there’s still Canada and Mexico to conquer.

Sell iRobot (Nasdaq: IRBT): The shares have sold off a bit in recent weeks, but we still have a 14% gain. The stock will have its ups and downs, no doubt, in the future.

But in my view, iRobot has a great future ahead of it. The company’s floor-cleaning robots generate lots of profit, with tremendous brand appeal. The company is readying its lawn mowing robot for the consumer market as well (delayed from this year to the next because of COVID-19 disruptions).

Sell National Vision Holdings (Nasdaq: EYE): The eye retailer’s shares are another of our portfolio positions that more than doubled off the March COVID-19 panic lows.

As I mentioned in the original recommendation last year, proper eyeglasses and eye exams are things that most of us cannot do without. As the low-price provider in this category, National Vision is well-positioned for the future.

Sell 3D Systems (Nasdaq: DDD): The shares are down about 6% since I issued the special report in February.

I continue to like this stock even if the rest of investors remain indifferent. As I’ve noted in past updates, industrial-grade additive printing technologies are not something that’s happening “out there” in the hazy future. It’s actually happening now.

When the current tech craze ends, I remain convinced that “additive printing 2.0” will be the rallying cry of the next one.

Sell Verra Mobility (Nasdaq: VRRM): We’re wrapping up our Law of Unstoppable Profits position with a gain of 46%. Yes, it was higher than that only a month or two ago. Give it time.

City and county governments, metro toll authorities and school systems all have a vested interest — especially in the current environment — of doing more with less. Verra Mobility’s products and technology platforms help them achieve those goals.

Sell Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM): On Thursday, this stock rocketed more than 12% higher, giving us a final gain in the portfolio of more than 37% in two months’ time.

Analysts all raised the price targets on the stock when the chipmaker reported a quarterly profit of $0.86 a share ($0.15 higher than Wall Street’s estimates). The company remains well-positioned for the ongoing transition to ultra-fast 5G networks.

Just remember that the stock benefits greatly from investors’ enthusiasm for tech stocks. If and when that cools, chances are that Qualcomm’s stock will cool with it. The fact that the shares also pay a 2.5% dividend at current prices should help support the share price though.

Sell Liberty Latin America (Nasdaq: LILA): We’re finishing with the stock down about 38% in the past 18 months. I’m sure that’s tested your patience as it did mine.

The stock holds little interest among Wall Street investors; that’s plain to see. Yet Liberty Latin America has been taking advantage of depressed prices for telecom networks to increase its dominance in the region.

Just last week, the company said it was acquiring Telefonica’s wireless operations in Costa Rica for $500 million in cash. Liberty Latin America’s stock soared nearly 6% for the day.

But if you’re in the shares, my advice is to remain patient. Though I sound like a broken record at this point, I believe investors will gravitate to the stock, given its rising cash flow and the steady nature of its operations — especially as the dollar has begun its “swan dive” of late.

After hitting a three-year high in late March, as the COVID-19 crisis peaked — the dollar has lost 10% of its value. When the dollar loses value, foreign currencies gain value.

If the dollar continues to stairstep lower (in what would essentially be a “no confidence vote” on the vigor of the U.S. economy), emerging market stocks of all kinds may suddenly come back into favor as investors look for other ways besides gold to hedge their declining dollar-based assets.

Sell Antares Pharma (Nasdaq: ATRS): We’re down about 10% on this position.

If you own it, stay with it. Demand for Antares’ generic EpiPen remains strong. The COVID-19 situation has meant a temporary decline in demand for other Antares’ products, such as Xyosted (generic testosterone) and other self-injected medicines.

The crisis forced analysts to lower their 2020 profit projections from as much as $0.22 a share (based on their outlook last November) to expectations of just $0.02 a share.

But they expect demand to rebound to $0.24 a share in 2021, to $0.30 rising to $0.41 a share by 2023.

Sell Thermo Fisher Scientific (NYSE: TMO): Since adding the stock in May, the shares are up more than 21%.

Analysts love that the company’s advanced technology is at the forefront of the fight against COVID-19. Last week, numerous Wall Street firms raised their price targets to as much as $470 a share — a rise of 15% from the current price of the stock.

Sell ING Group (NYSE: ING): ING is one of Europe’s dominant financial institutions and has operations in Australia and parts of Asia, as well.

Most of the stock’s 35% decline happened this year. First, came the coronavirus panic. In its aftermath, the European Central Bank put pressure on ING and other banks in the region to suspend their dividends to conserve cash (which ING only reluctantly went along with).

As the COVID scare passes in coming quarters, I expect ING to start paying its dividend again, which should bring many institutional funds back with an appetite for the stock.

Since ING takes in most of its revenue in euros, the stock also offers you a way to hedge the value of your dollar-based stock assets if the value of the dollar continues to decline in coming quarters.

Sell Seagate Technology PLC (Nasdaq: STX): The company, as you probably know, manufactures hard drives and other digital memory products.

The company generates lots of cash flow; it easily pays its 5.2% quarterly dividend. But profits are down about 10% in the past two years; analysts expect the company to generate about $4.95 a share in earnings this year.

Those results reflect a business that’s in decline to a small degree. Lots of new PCs now use “SSD” or solid-state drives, rather than the old-school “spinning” hard drives that you typically hear whirring in the background of your home computer.

But lesser known is the fact that Seagate also makes industrial-sized hard drives for use “in the cloud,” i.e., massive data centers.

Demand for those big drives has been somewhat depressed the last few years as well; the big data center operators like Apple, Amazon and the other tech biggies held back on memory upgrades.

But thanks to the COVID-related “stay at home” and “work from home” trends, people and companies are storing even more digital data than ever before. So Seagate said it’s starting to see massive demand again as data center operators install racks of new memory drives capable of storing up to 50 terabytes worth of data.

If you like steady, reliable businesses that return a nice chunk of cash to shareholders each year, Seagate is a stock to stay with for the long term.

Lastly, let’s cover the Kennedy Account portfolio stocks.

Your Kennedy Stocks

We set up this portfolio in 2018 as part of a focus on dividend reinvestment plans (DRIP). One of the keys to making a “DRIP” portfolio work for the long term is doing just that — owning the stocks essentially forever.

Sell Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (NYSE: SKT): This one was unfortunately forced to suspend its dividend, out of an abundance of caution with COVID-19.

Yet how many real estate investment trusts can tell Wall Street analysts they “have sufficient liquidity to meet obligations even under the most conservative rent collection scenario of not receiving any rent for approximately two years” — all while continuing to meet the payment obligations on its investment-grade bond debt?

I remain confident Tanger will reinitiate its dividend when the COVID situation dissipates. On a recent trip through the Atlanta area (on my way to an Appalachian Trail hike with my son), I passed by the region’s Tanger Outlet Center. The parking lot was packed.

I’m not sure if that’s good from a public health perspective, but it tells me that long after the virus passes, Tanger’s outlets will still have a huge amount of demand, even if Wall Street wants to believe otherwise.

Sell McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD): The restaurant chain has been reliably paying and raising its quarterly dividend for more than 50 years. I don’t expect that to change anytime soon, COVID or no COVID. No need to say more than that.

Sell Universal Insurance Holdings (NYSE: UVE): I continue to find a lot to like about Universal Insurance. In 2017, it paid out $24 million in dividends to shareholders. Last year, it paid out more than $26 million, and that number should rise at least a bit higher when 2020 goes on the books.

So why is the stock down about 40% in the portfolio?

Well, with the Fed having cut interest rates to zero, it makes it that much harder for insurance companies (as well as banks) to get a decent return on their cash. As a result, their asset values are worth that much less to investors.

Add in the disruptions of the COVID-19 crisis, like fewer sales people selling insurance policies — and the all-consuming passion for tech stocks to the exclusion of everything else — and you have your explanation.

I continue to like the stock, even if most investors don’t. The stock is trading at its book value — basically the value of its real estate assets and its cash in the bank — yet analysts expect Universal to earn $2.46 a share this year and $3.13 in 2021.

Sell Weyco Group (Nasdaq: WEYS): Weyco makes footwear, and owns brand names like Florsheim, Nunn Bush, Rafters and Umi.

Investors don’t seem to care much for the company lately — it’s down almost 40% in the portfolio for no particular reason except that it seems like a boring company with only modest profit and revenue growth.

But that seems to be just fine by Weyco’s executives. They’re focused on keeping their operations running lean and mean, while paying and raising the company’s dividend, which yields 5% at the current price of the stock.

Lastly, Weyco uses its substantial cash flow to regularly buy its own stock — over the last 10 years, the company’s bought back more than 10% of its outstanding shares, making its remaining shares that much more valuable.

While I’m writing “sell” for the purposes of wrapping up the portfolio, I suspect Weyco will be doing just fine for years to come.

Sell Essential Utilities (NYSE: WTRG): I continue to love the story that Essential Utilities has to tell. The old stock ticker for the company was WTR, when it was known as Aqua America. The company continues to pay out a nice 2.3% dividend, raising it like clockwork every 12 months.

Essential Utilities continues to acquire municipal water systems, run them efficiently and professionally. But the company spied a similar opportunity with municipally-owned natural gas systems.

I think it’s a great opportunity to expand its revenue while staying within its core competencies as a buyer and integrator of municipal utility systems.

The stock also appears undervalued. It’s trading about 15% below its pre-COVID all-time highs, and its price-to-book value is 2.3 — its lowest valuation by that measurement since 1997.

So that wraps things up for me.

Again, these stocks will not be in Charles’ Alpha Investor Report model portfolio. If you choose to continue holding these stocks, please use a 25% trailing stop.

And you can view our remaining Total Wealth Insider positions here.

It’s been a privilege to tell you about these stocks and many other opportunities over the past three years.

As always, I wish you the best of “good buys” while having to truly say “goodbye” for the last time.

Jeff L. Yastine signature

Jeff Yastine
Editor, Total Wealth Insider