The counting continues.
After months of hype and anticipation, we’ll have to wait a little longer to find out who our next president will be.
One thing is clear: Democrats haven’t seen the resounding victory they hoped for and that many polls had predicted.
And the prospect of a blue wave — where Democrats win control of the White House and Congress — appears slim to none.
Biden might win the presidency, but Republicans have retained key Senate seats. However, Democrats will maintain control in the House of Representatives.
Add all that up, and it looks like we’re headed for more gridlock in Washington, no matter who ends up in the White House.
So, what does that mean for stocks?
And how can we earn profits using what we already know about the results?
What Comes Next
One immediate ramification of a gridlocked government is that the potential for further stimulus spending is unclear. And if we do see a deal, the size of a package would likely be pared back significantly.
You can see this reflected in market moves this morning.
As I wrote this, the yield on the 10-year Treasury had fallen to 0.78% because the anticipated blue-wave surge in deficit spending is now unlikely.
Small-cap stock futures sank by 2% at one point but have recovered their losses.
Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures were surging, more than 3% higher, likely in response to a more favorable regulatory backdrop and support to valuations by falling interest rates.
In other words, it looks like the status quo for the stock market.
How to Play the Results
It’s important to remember that these are knee-jerk reactions to what is known at this very moment.
After all, the markets swung wildly overnight as the election scales tipped back and forth from Democrats to Republicans. We still don’t know the final outcome for the presidential and Senate races. And there’s the prospect of a contested election that could drag on for weeks in the courts.
In other words, prepare for more volatility. Here are three ways to do that…
No. 1: Don’t make investment decisions based on news reports.
This will be a headline-driven market until the election outcome is settled, with large market fluctuations.
No. 2: Diversify and use hedges in your portfolio to offset risks elsewhere.
That includes an allocation to gold, which still looks attractive in this environment. That’s not surprising because it’s a safe haven asset. Besides, the decline in Treasury yields will boost gold’s appeal, as I explained several months ago in Bauman Daily.
There are various ways to get exposure to gold, including the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD).
No. 3: Above all, stay smart and tough, and stick to your game plan.
Know that Ted and I are here to guide you through this election season chaos, its aftermath and beyond.
Best regards,
Research Analyst, The Bauman Letter