Friday Feedback: The “Hydrogen Serenade” Edition
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This is the day we take your deepest, dankest market and investing questions and put them on display … front and center. Remember, there are no stupid questions — only stupid answers, which I pride myself in providing.
Today, we’re covering everything from hydrogen fuel cells (HFCs) to Nike (NYSE: NKE) and RTFKT to lithium batteries to the metaverse. Oh yeah, this is gonna be fun!
If you wanna join in the insanity, just drop us a line at GreatStuffToday@BanyanHill.com … I promise, we don’t bite. That costs extra.
Without any further ado, let’s get to our featured presentation:
You have not mentioned PLUG recently. As we speak, it is trading at $29.63.
That is about 34% from its high. It has dropped almost 20% from the beginning of the month.
So, why the silence?
A PLUG holder losing money. — Alan H.
Hello there, Alan! Thanks for reading Great Stuff and for writing in!
So, Plug Power (Nasdaq: PLUG), huh? Now there’s a name I’ve not written about directly in a long time.
I mean, I reference Plug Power rather frequently … practically every time hydrogen power comes up, Plug Power isn’t far behind.
The first thing I’m gonna say is that I kept PLUG stock with a “buy” designation in the last Great Stuff Picks portfolio review. And I stand by that.
Yes, PLUG shares are down considerably from their January 2021 all-time highs … by about 61%, if my math is correct. However, Great Stuff Picks readers who bought PLUG stock when I recommended the shares in October 2020 sit on a gain of nearly 100%.
For those of you who got in later, or in the past year, it’s been a bumpier ride than you probably expected. But I can assure you that those “bumps” aren’t coming from Plug Power’s business … they’re coming from Wall Street.
Wall Street investors are in a bit of a pickle right now. They’re worried about inflation. They’re worried about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. They’re worried about COVID-19. They’re worried about the Great Resignation, rising labor costs … etc.
When investors worry, they back away from growth stocks and tech stocks — which are often one and the same — and seek out safe-haven investments like gold, blue chips, bonds and straight-up cash or U.S. dollar index funds.
Being the massive growth company that it is, Plug Power caught the blunt end of the stick in the past couple of months. And if Plug Power wasn’t executing its business plan to grow and expand in the hydrogen power market, I would be right there with them selling PLUG stock.
But that is so not the case. Plug Power continues to sign new deals, explore new hydrogen power offerings … boldly going where no energy company has gone before!
In just the past month, Plug Power announced:
• A “long-term supply and logistics” agreement with Certarus, a Canadian green hydrogen supplier. The goal is to produce 1,000 tons of green hydrogen per day by 2028.
• An HFC production deal with Korean electric bus maker Edison Motors. Plug and Edison plan to have an HFC bus prototype completed by 2022, with mass production arriving in 2023.
• The acquisition of Texas-based Applied Cryo Technologies — a company specializing in the production, transportation, storage and delivery of liquefied hydrogen.
• The acquisition of Frames Group — a turnkey systems integration provider in the energy sector that will help Plug Power with engineering, processes and systems integration expertise with its HFC systems.
• A joint venture with ACCIONA Energía to develop, operate and maintain green hydrogen projects in Portugal and Spain.
The point is that Plug Power is continuing to grow and do business as usual to achieve its goal of dominating the hydrogen power market … regardless of Wall Street’s concerns and fearmongering.
All of our drivers and reasons for buying PLUG stock in the first place not only remain — they’ve gotten stronger. But, I get it, Alan. Y’all are losing money on your PLUG positions, and that doesn’t feel good.
There are two ways to handle this: You can sell PLUG now (or whenever you feel comfortable) and take your profits/losses and leave. Or, you can continue holding PLUG stock and tough it out until the market wakes up to just how good this company is.
The shares may be down big from their all-time highs, but analysts are calling for a valuation as high as $78.
I think that’s underestimating Plug Power’s growth potential … especially once the transportation and airline sectors get on board the hydrogen highway.
Make no mistake, Great Stuff Picks is gonna hold. I’ve got diamond hands for PLUG stock.
So, Alan, if PLUG is making you too nervous … it’s OK to sell. You need to do what’s best for you. Great Stuff Picks, however, will keep holding.
Thanks again for writing in!
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And now we begin the main event! Over to the big ring … center stage!
Up for debate this week is — ooh, I’d have never guessed — hydrogen power. Again. Throw in some battery-building banter and nifty Nike NFTs, and you have one heaping helping of Friday Feedback.
Dig it and dig in!
Other People’s Power
when are you going to explain what the DCRC to SLDP stuff means?
— LD
Are you down with DCRC?
Yeah, you know me!
Except … wait a minute, the shell company formerly known as Decarbonization Plus Acquisition III is no more, as LD pointed out.
It officially merged with battery developer Solid Power (Nasdaq: SLDP) last month, which I told you was gonna happen back in September’s issue: What’s The Deal With Solid Power?
This means that Solid Power trades on its own now, under the ticker symbol SLDP — and that you can forget the “DCRC” part of the merger entirely. Capisce? Cool.
Now, as for whether or not you should invest in Solid Power… that’s a slightly different animal. And it’s ultimately your decision, LD.
As I told Great Ones back in September, the company’s tech is still a while off, and its success hinges on a few uncertain variables:
If you’re comfortable holding SLDP as a long-term portfolio position, the fact that Solid Power has yet to generate any revenue might not matter very much to you, LD. It certainly doesn’t bother the company’s CEO, Doug Campbell:
While SLDP had a good rally when it debuted, Solid Power stock has plunged in recent weeks. That was to be expected — and it’s not necessarily a point of concern, as Campbell mentioned.
So, ultimately, whether or not you should invest in SLDP comes down to your own risk appetite, LD. While it could make for a good long-term holding, expect more volatility ahead until the company starts generating serious revenue.
(By the way … with EV growth set to surge 1,150% by 2030, there’s still a lot of money on the table. The absolute best way to play EV stocks? Click here now!)
Y R PPL BYiNg NFTs?!
Wht th fk???!!! NKE mst B STPD! Wth al th por pepl n th wld, and wth NKE suprtg the Communist concentration camps in Xinjiang Prov., Chna 4 thr usls futwr, hw fkg stpd can NKE b? Mn, cn u imgin a btr way to dstry CAPITALISM thn to by/spnd mny (n $MM!) on a fkg NFT whn 100’sMM pepl arnd th wld r cld and hngry. Unblvble. NKE – slf absrbd and nfntile. STPD, STPD, STPD
— Robert W.
Oof. Now this is the kinda humor I’ve grown used to from you Great Ones! While my eyes may never recover from this, Robert, you made me literally laugh out loud. Thanks for writing in!
It sounds like Nike’s foray into the metaverse struck a chord with Robert here. But for any of you Great Ones out there feeling lost, prepare to be even more lost when you check out Nike’s RTFKT NFT WTF LOL?
Now, Robert, your email took some patience to decipher, but I believe what you’re saying is that it’s simply preposterous for people to buy and spend money on NFTs in the metaverse. Especially when real-world money could be spent to help millions of real-world people from going hungry and not having a roof over their heads.
On a human level, I completely agree with you. But as you mention, we live in a capitalist society … and where’s the cha-ching in generosity? Psshaw… I’d argue there’s nothing more capitalistic than companies making money off trends like sneaker NFTs.
Love it or hate it, the metaverse is the brand-new digital frontier — and everyone from Nike and Facebook to Roblox’s legions of child gamedevelopers wants a piece of it.
Can’t Stop The Battery
Please clarify for your readers that every hydrogen vehicle will have a battery.
Fuel cells can’t ramp up and down quickly, so unless you want a vehicle that can do the quarter-mile in 6.2 minutes, you’re gonna want a bit of battery. Maybe you only need a battery with a 10-mile range instead of 300 miles, so it wouldn’t be a huge portion of the vehicle price, but it won’t let you ignore it.
— Brent R.
One clarification, coming right up! But only because you said “please,” Brent. And because we could actually read your email (no offense, Robert).
Now, you are technically correct — the best kind of correct! But not fully correct … sorry to burst your bubble.
I’ve mentioned this in the past when diving down the hydrogen rabbit hole, but it’s worth mentioning again. Yes, HFC cars will need a backup battery — and it’s exactly why I recommended lithium miner Albemarle (NYSE: ALB) back in October:
The battery also stores excess electricity from the HFCs and from regenerative braking. In other words, you never have to plug this battery in like you would for, say, a Tesla.
Plus, the battery in HFC vehicles is much, much smaller — just ask the folks over at Quantumscape and Solid Power.
For instance, the Toyota Mirai HFC sports a lithium-ion battery that weighs about 98.3 pounds. Meanwhile, the Tesla Model 3’s battery weighs a whopping 1,060 lbs. And as the size of a vehicle increases, the weight of those batteries scales at a much faster pace than an HFC’s “backup” batteries.
The last thing I want to point out regards your claim that fuel cells don’t ramp up quickly. This is false! Current HFCs can do a 50% to 100% ramp up in power in 0.1 seconds — even in lower-volume hydrogen systems.
Stick that in your battery compartment! (Not literally, please. Great Stuff is not responsible for anything lodged in anyone’s batteries.)
What’s on your mind this week, Great Ones? Are you chomping at the bit for better battery buys? Are you hellbent on hydrogen power (or leather)? And what’s the deal with Nike’s NFT nonsense?
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Until next time, stay Great!
Regards,
Joseph Hargett
Editor, Great Stuff