Are you prepared for a messy Thanksgiving weekend?
Tomorrow, as Americans collect around dining room tables to celebrate family and turkey, snow will be collecting in the Rockies as the coldest air of the season invades the Pacific Northwest. Heavy rain will drench Northern California. Snow, rain, freezing rain and sleet will move into the Plains states and down through Texas. And as the holiday weekend progresses, temperatures will struggle to break above freezing from the Missouri Valley into the Upper Great Lakes.
In short, for much of the nation, Turkey Day promises to be as messy as a heap of Thanksgiving dishes and plates.
And some of us have already made good money off this wintry event…
Back on August 20, my team and I told a small group of investors that the shares of Vail Resorts (NYSE: MTN) were primed to move higher, and that a particular investment in Vail would surge sharply higher as a result.
This past Monday that trade paid off: My small group of investors closed out their position in Vail with a 65.5% gain.
On the same day, they closed half their position in Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) with an 85.3% gain, and on the next day, they closed the other half of the Tyson trade with a 100% gain. We alerted them to the Tyson opportunity back in June, when we noted that Tyson’s shares would be moving higher through the end of the year.
That marked the 17th trade we’ve made in the last 16 months that gave us returns of between 100% and 200%.
It sounds crazy and hyperbolic to tell you that we’ve closed 17 trades with gains of 100% or more in just 16 months, but it’s true. And including open positions, as well as all our winners and losers, this select group of investors has seen cumulative gains of 114% (or 81.3% on an annualized basis) since I began issuing trade alerts in August 2014.
There is a method to this success.
It’s what I call “seasonal trading.”
The System for Uncovering Seasonal Trading Patterns
For too many investors, investing is little more than throwing darts at a board and hoping for the best.
As has been said many times, though: “Hope is not a strategy.”
Two years ago, I set out to build a team that would help me create a truly unique investment service reliant on empirical data rather than hope. We’ve perfected it. It’s called Precision Profits — a name that underscores the precise nature of the investments subscribers are making.
You see, I worked in the hedge fund industry for a while as a trader and an analyst. And I spent 17 years writing about Wall Street and its personalities for The Wall Street Journal. Through those experiences, I saw — and learned — how some of the best on Wall Street operate. They’re putting real money into systems that look for signals amid all the noise that passes for “news” in the financial markets.
As a financial writer, I cannot tell you how many times I saw companies talk about seasonal impacts and how those seasonal impacts played through the company’s share price. To many, it seemed random. And certainly it wasn’t enough to base an investment on.
Or was it?
I had a hunch that it was.
And that’s why my team and I began digging through scads and scads of public companies, looking for seasonal patterns and then backtracking those patterns to understand what prompted them and why they did or might have had an impact on a particular stock.
What we found was eye-opening!
Scores of companies have seasonal trading patterns. I want to say they’re “secret” patterns, if only to build up a little mystery. But the fact is, they’re not so secret. They’re right in front of you. The truth is that if you know where to look, and what you’re looking for, well, then, Wall Street has some very profitable surprises for you in plain sight.
Consider this chart:
I won’t tell you the name of this company; that’s part of my proprietary research. To many people I show this to, there’s nothing but a general uptrend and a few nerve-racking downdrafts.
But when you pull apart the chart to seek out a seasonal trading pattern, you see insane consistency!
Every year, with the reliability of a Swiss train schedule, this company’s shares rise from May through December. And I know exactly why: It’s a function of where the company’s customers are located and when those customers are actively involved with this company’s products.
The seasonality is remarkable.
More importantly, it’s tradable — if you know it exists and why it exists.
My team and I do.
Which is why we closed trading in this particular company with gains of 109% on the first half of our position, and then 200% a few weeks later on the second half of our position.
Using Patterns to Our Advantage
All of this brings me back around to Thanksgiving. My team and I knew back in August that we were heading for a snowy winter in the Rockies, thanks to our certified consulting meteorologist’s insights, and we knew what that meant for Vail Resorts, which owns ski resorts in the Rockies.
We staked our position early, before the rest of the crowd caught on.
And as the ski season opened early — a boon to Vail’s ticket sales — the company’s shares began to move … and we pocketed big profits of more than 65% in just a few months.
We still have half of our position open and I’m expecting we will see a triple-digit gain before we finally close it out.
It just goes to show you that it’s not every cloud that has a silver lining … it’s every season!
From me and my team, happy Thanksgiving!
Jeff D. Opdyke
Editor, Precision Profits