The Auto Industry Is About to Completely Change

A new transportation system is coming soon that will completely change the auto industry and, in time, life as we know it.

“Will we need to learn to drive?” my son asked me recently.

Before I tell you what I told him as an answer, I want to give you an idea of why he asked me this question.

You see, right now, we’re at a moment when things that once seemed permanent are now in question.

Cars and driving are one of these things. Just to get a sense of car history, consider this:

Nelson Jackson, Sewall Crocker and their dog, Bud, made the first successful transcontinental automobile trip in 1903. Car technology was primitive. They relied on stagecoaches to ferry spare parts.

One time a cow had to tow them. And another time, a team of horses had to be sent to get them out of a Vermont bog. The 4,500-mile journey took 63 days, 12 hours and 30 minutes.

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Few then would have imagined what would happen next.

An Insane Level of Growth

Incredibly, the U.S. went from 800 cars in 1900 to 458,500 in 1910 to 8.2 million cars by 1920 to 253 million now. That’s an insane level of growth.

And car growth has exploded even higher in recent years. In 2016, U.S. vehicle sales totaled 17.55 million. That beats 2015’s record of 17.47 million and was the seventh consecutive year of unprecedented growth.

However, I’m incredibly pessimistic about car sales because I believe that we’ve seen their peak.

In 10 years, we’ll have fewer cars on the road. And fewer still in 20. That’s why I told my son it’s unlikely he’d need to learn to drive.

The reason I’m so pessimistic is because new innovations are going to wipe out cars as we know them.

A Total Wipeout for the Auto Industry

The average price of a car is $35,000, but the costs of traditional car ownership go far beyond the price tag. There is also interest paid on car loans, insurance, taxes, fuel and maintenance. Some expenses are nonobvious, such as parking, property taxes and construction costs for home garages, and the value of our time.

And according to research by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, our cars are only used for about 4% of the day.

In other words, buying a car is one of the most wasteful expenses imaginable. If you take the 4% number at face value, it means a total wipeout for the auto industry. That’s because it means we could get by with 96% fewer cars if we had a system that uses the cars we own optimally.

This same study also says that, right now, as many as 25% of people are better off using ride-sharing services. These are services like Uber and Lyft that you can call from your smartphone.

I believe this study is right. The automobile of today is the equivalent of the horse and buggy-based transportation system of the 1800s. It’s primed to be replaced by a new transportation system that’s driven by electric, self-driving, internet-connected cars that will completely change transportation and, in time, life as we know it.

Waymo, the autonomous car unit of Google parent Alphabet, already has plans to start testing a new kind of transportation system.

“Because you’re accessing vehicles rather than owning, in the future, you could choose from an entire fleet of vehicle options that are tailored to each trip you want to make,” said Waymo CEO John Krafcik. People could claim the cars for a day, a week or even longer, he said. And, according to Krafcik, driverless cars could be completely redesigned, such as to include a dining area.

Now, many of you will think that this forecast is too strong. You’ll think that just because cars have endured for as long as they have, they’ll continue to be something that people rely on. And because of that, you’ll be tempted to buy car-company stocks as they go down.

However, don’t buy these stocks, however cheap they look. They are doomed.

If you want to invest in the future instead, including the future of cars and transportation, I invite you to join Profits Unlimited today.

Regards,

Paul Mampilly
Editor, Profits Unlimited

P.S. To hear more of my thoughts on the future of the auto industry, click on the embedded video below.

  • We’ll also have an unprecedented ability of The State to monitor and CONTROL all our individual travel functions, unless we can walk. Electronically, centrally controlled cars or busses will be just one more nexus where they can turn your ability to function OFF at the stroke of a keyboard command.

  • jrj90620

    As a bicyclist,sure would be nice to have less cars on the road,in overpopulated So California.

  • cyborg_trader

    I see where you are headed, but you are off about 50 years. Lack of “intelligent” infrastructure is a big hindrance. People still don’t have credit/debit cards, which I would assume how the majority of car sharing would be paid for. Rural areas, still need that old pickup truck. It makes sense in a metro area, but not rural. Take your son for a ride in a new Porsche 911 Turbo, manual shift only(hate the paddle shift) and see if he want to learn how to drive 🙂 I know the future of change is coming just that for now, there are to many obstacles for it to be right around the corner. Though I would use the car of the future, but will always have transportation that is not connected to the grid. Good article, I enjoyed the break from trading.

  • Jim Brown

    Once this services is up and running and has proven that it will be there when you want it there will be no stopping it. The choice will be simple. Spend 30,000 to 80,000 for a car or sign up for an on demand services. The estimate for cars and trucks on the road today is 253,000,000. Twelve percent of that 30,360,000 cars and trucks. That’s three times more than needed, but we don’t what people waiting. How will run this system the vehicles manufactured with the best design and the one that most people sign up for. Once it starts I give it Ten years to complete dominance. At most Fifteen years to dominicans.

  • Jim Brown

    Just think no massive parking lots. When they put the Drone attachment on the car no roads. The new Solar Panels with 92% efficiency . I don’t know but could be no fuel just go. Move over George.
    Yes government control of everything. That is why we must take the control from big money and return it to the voters. Day dream I guess!

  • Chip Hamilton

    I hope that you drive better than you pick stocks. Better buckle up.